674K Windows Phone 7 sales in Q4 2010? Possible.

May 3, 2011 | By Surur

Russian blogger Eldar Murtazin has posted on his analysis of carrier chatter on Windows Phone 7 sales, and came to the conclusion that 674 000 Windows Phone 7 handsets ended up in the hands of consumers by the end of last year.

Eldar did not reveal his methods, but we can extrapolate US Windows Phone 7 sales to consumers fairly easily.

According to AT&T’s Q4 2010 financials they activated 4.1 million iPhones that quarter. According to the NPD Apple’s iPhone sales presented 19% of smartphone sales in Q4, and Windows Phone 7 2%. A short calculation later reveals 431,000 Windows Phone 7 handsets ended up in the hands of consumers.

With most Windows Phone 7 sales in USA a total of 674 000 is certainly possible, and would represent around a multiple of 3 of the around 200,000 Facebook App users at the end of last year. If that same multiple still applies then there are around 1.5 to 2 million Windows Phone 7 users at the moment. This would represent a launch spike followed by around 10,000 activations per day.

The question of course is how much it matters. Eldar calls it a catastrophic failure, and sales like this will certainly not set carrier and OEM hearts on fire. At the same time Microsoft is clearly not giving up on the OS, with many improvements and increased distribution coming by the end of the year. In many ways the first wave of devices served as a foot hold for the OS, and it will be up to Microsoft to leverage it into an OS which attract consumers at a better rate than currently.

Thanks Just Visiting for the tip.

About Surur

Site Admin and Windows Phone enthusiast, he has been using Windows Mobile devices since before they were called PocketPC’s. He is currently sporting a HTC 7 Trophy.

Tagged market share, sales, windows phone 7

Lennard

I want to be able to change the damn background to any pictures I'd like for my background on my homescreen…can I have that please Microsoft?

zzz

What damn background? There are just tiles with very little background area to display a picture. You want to squeeze in a picture there?

MeSays

There's more to it than just home screen. There's the full list of apps to the right that have more blank space where a wallpaper could continue on in a panoramic view.

Plus, when you make a selection … it's black for a little bit that a wallpaper could be seen then. Not to mention the fact that you don't have to have each tile next to each other. You can have some blank spaces there. And they could allow the tiles to have some transparency as well.

Is it something that I desperately need right now? No, but people like to make their phones more personal.

zzz

I see. Maybe it's because I own a Focus w/ S-AMOLED screen but I find those little black areas pretty neat. Anyway, I hope MS puts it in for some of you but I doubt it's high on their priority list.

Lennard

yep, I doubt its even on their priority list. but I would like the option. been scouring through the registry for a way to do so.

98y789giG

mesays, that master applications list relies on white text to contrast with a black background to be readable. unlike the iphone, the icons are not the "main tool" used to find an application, the text is. if the text is illegible from a bright background caused by a custom picture background, then that would be a problem.

MeSays

True, but they could just add a black outline to the white text or have it detect the darkness/lightness of the background and change it accordingly. They could also allow the User to change the text color.

The User also could also see that their particular background doesn't work and then change it to one that does … but of course, that wouldn't be the ideal solution since some people wouldn't be able to change it back easily if they don't know/remember what the Settings icon is.

There are solutions that they could implement. The main thing is to give options for people. There would always be the option of what it is right now. I have a Focus and not having a background is no big deal, plus it saves on battery being black. For others though, not having that option might have them leaning toward another phone if they were on the edge.

Lennard

dude, first off I wasn't talking to you so back the hell up and watch your tone.

a faded picture in the background of the home screen/app list would look real nice to me along with being able to change the light and dark theme to go along with the image. if you don't see the need for it them there are other ways to say so than to be an aggressor. this is not engadget, we all can have decent convo here.

zzz

Woke up on the wrong side of bed this morning? "damn background" were your words I just quoted.

Lennard

nope. usually woke up on the wrong side, but I woke up this time on the right side.

anyway, um, you and I have been to school, so we both should know that when you're quoting someone you use the quotation marks (" ") correct? without those marks its not considered a quote, correct? without you using them they became your words not mine.

TimoTim

I don't understand people like you. Yes, he wants a background, or at least the option to add one in when he feels like it…I don't see why he shouldn't have that. Some of you people are taken things WAY too far. Customization options will be selling points for a lot of people…as long as you have the option to keep the look you want – all is well. I can think of plenty of cool looking wallpapers that would work with the home screen's limited space, but to not allow it at all wouldn't be doing anyone any good. Be open to the platform growing.

98y789giG

any background image can suck the battery dry if it is too bright/white

id rather not give the consumer that option so they complain later.
kevin

Classic response from WP7 users to your wish…. "no you can't have that and you shouldn't want it either". Last time I checked just about every popular/unpopular OS on the planet allowed you to change the background. I don't think it is unreasonable for a user to want to change the background and MS should make this happen.

fred

The debut sales quarter of Android were a "failure" also. It's a marathon not a sprint. People who get the phone recommend it. Windows Phone is here to stay.

Nothing

I think spending the amount of money they did on marketing and ending up with these kind of numbers is kind of devastating. They essentially spent 800 dollars for you to own your phone. Android didn't spend nearly that much on their marketing until the Droid and look at how that took off.

fred

Consider that most AT&T and T-Mobile salesmen were telling customers NOT to buy a Windows Phone! Word of mouth will have to sell the phone, because the salesmen in stores are not helping it at all. Things will run smoother when Verizon and Nokia are on board.
Lennard

how do did you come up with that figure? ($800)?

bobwhite

Maybe $500,000,000 (orignal ad budget) / 674 000 sales = $741

jimski

And you are certain that MS has spent the $500M. Ok, first the 674,000 is only US numbers and only up to 12/31/10. WP is very popular in Europe and otherparts of the world. So let's call it an even 1M up till 12/31/10. At least 500K and more like 1M since 12/31.

With that said, what you saw in Oct/Nov 2010 was a soft launch. A way to keep Windows phone devices relevant till things like the Nokia deal, Mango update and other carrier arrangements, etc. could be put in place. Look for a hard launch this Autumn, with a lot more advertising and marketing. Would you have preferred they released WM6.9 last year and waited to relase WP. Things are going to get interesting.
Brian

Do you have any evidence that Microsoft intended this to be a "soft launch?" Given the marketing dollars it certainly doesn't seem like it to me.
OpenThtead

"WP is very popular in Europe and otherparts of the world" – figures please. All I've read is that WP7 is dead in the UK, no better in the rest of Europe, and non existent in APAC

http://twitter.com/bokehglass @bokehglass

I have Dell Venue Pro and love it. I do not recommend WP7 because messenger and custom ringtones are missing. These features may seem minor but to teens and young adults, they’re very important features. I’ll wait for Mango then I’ll do my sales pitch to my friends, etc.

Sina

Wait, isn't having over 600K sales for something completely new and non i-product in 2 months really good?

P. Douglas

You don't understand. You are not supposed to compare initial sales figures for WP7 with initial sales figures for the iPhone or the Android, or WP7 will be seen to have performed the best. You are supposed to compare WP7 initial sales with the sales of more mature handsets, where WP7 looks bad. (This is straight out of the MS haters handbook.)

Brian

No, you don't understand. This isn't 2007, it's 2011 and the marketplace ius very different from where it was 4 years ago. Much as they might like to Microsoft can't travel back in time.

jabtano

The real figures for WP7 should be taken after WP7.5 comes out. after that update WP7.5 will be equal or ahead of the big two platforms currently. With apple sales they have one device. So the focus is singular. WP7 is what ten or devices? Apple controls the OS and the Device. MS only controls the OS. they have nothing to do with device design by the manufacturers.I'll bet a few months after WP7.5 gets pushed out which should be right in line with the coming holiday push. we will see major spikes in sales of WP7.5 devices.
http://twitter.com/MikkeyAlias @MikkeyAlias

Eldar about iPhone in 2008: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?ref=In… http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?ref=In…

He not a journalist, he is advertising manager. He writes only good things about companies, who pay him. For example – Samsung. Now, one of russian telecommunications company – Beeline, want to sell Blackberry's, they pay him for advertising, and now we will see many articles about good things Blackberry's. All russian IT journalist laughing over it. I don't know why journalists from other countries take it seriously.

Adam

He's being taken seriously as he's only providing numbers, not necessarily interpreting them. He's had some history of success so that lends credibility. I don't know the man and it's hard to interpret what he writes in translation, but his numbers would explain why Microsoft hasn't exactly trumpted numbers when it comes to WP7. They love to dwell on the number of apps in the marketplace, but 95% of them are crap.

http://twitter.com/MikkeyAlias @MikkeyAlias

I think sales will published when they will be comparable to Android and iPhone. For example 70000 devices per day.
jimski

Guess I have a lot of crap on my phone then. But I am enjoying it. Maybe when there are 100,000 apps you will find something you like, assuming you can find it that is.
thed

He also has a beef with Nokia, which could explain a few things: http://conversations.nokia.com/2010/07/07/legal-a…

P. Douglas

I don't understand what's the problem. Assuming the figures are correct, an initial sale of 674K handsets in the US over the course of 2 months sounds fantastic to me! Worldwide sales (to consumers) of WP7 handsets in Q4 2010 could in fact have been around 1.5 million. This is better than how the iPhone originally performed – when it took Apple about 74 days to sell 1 million units. (Remember also, MS indicated that it sold over 2 million WP7 licenses in Q4 2010.) AT&T said it was happy with the initial sales of WP7. HTC was also happy; Samsung was ecstatic. Nielson indicated that Windows Mobile / WP7 reached 7% in March 2011.

Why do you guys listen to the naysayers of WP7 and MS? These guys unfortunately seem to make up most of the computer / gadget media, and many are utterly obsessed with portraying WP7 as a failure. Quite frankly I'm amazed the platform has done so well with all the negative media it has had to endure – including those from supposed friends with 'Weekly' podcasts, who make mountains out of WP7 update mole hills.

http://wmpoweruser.com/great-news-windows-phone-h…
Jen O

Even if there have been a few million WP7 sales so far, it would still be a disaster.

Considering the amount of money spent on R&D + marketing.

We know sales are low. There are 2 things on the horizon that Microsoft hopes will turn things around… Nokia and Windows 8 on phones.

P. Douglas

So it is a disaster when initial WP7 sales exceeded initial iPhone and Android sales?

thereplacement

Douglas is right in this, for a smartphone OS that literally just came to market, Windows Phone 7 is not performing poorly. It is awesome that microsoft has made such a well developed OS on its first serious foray into the business and there is not a doubt in my mind that these sales will go up exponentially. It takes some time for ads to see translation into sales but now that a majority of consumers know about the OS and are hearing those who own it are happy with it, the handsets will sell themselves.

Brian

This is far from Microsoft's first "serious foray" into this business. Very far.

Jen O

The original iPhone sold 270,000 units in its first 2 days on sale. After 74 days (two and a half months), the original iPhone broke the 1 million sales mark. That was back in early 2007, about 4 years ago.

I'm no fan of iPhone, but I think we should use realistic comparisons. The hard thing for Microsoft is that it is not 2007 now, and Microsoft (and everyone else) must compete in today's market, against today's competitors.

Things will start to get a lot more competitive when Nokia releases Windows 8 phones, which I look forward to seeing.

98y789giG

"Microsoft (and everyone else) must compete in today's market, against today's competitors. "

how are they not competing? they have a compelling product that is better than the competition, and spending everything they can in advertising

its not their fault androids buy 1 get 10 free, salesman word-of-mouth is fighting against them

Joe05

Microsoft is looking at about a minimum 5 year time period for Windows phone so two months is really just a blip in the overall long term plan for this platform.

Unfortunately being a fanboy doesn't necessarily translate to having any longterm business sense for a lot of posters who think that two months is a sign of failure in a product.

You have to look at the product itself, WP is excellent though very much a beta at this point, superior tools for developers today, not counting the upcoming improvements that are right around the corner.

The Nokia deal is a windfall for anyone, which explains why Google wanted Android on Nokia handsets, it would have given them the reach that only Nokia really can provide, and Google's complete lack of professionalism when it became apparent that Microsoft had secured Nokia for Windows Phone.

Windows Phone is here to stay and yes the future looks bright for this excellent Mobile OS.

Brian

The most inportant tools for developers aren't compilers and IDEs, they're market share and the ability to generate revenue. WP7 has a ways to go.

TriAxis

WP7 is a long haul project. Microsoft is doing what they did when the Xbox launched, and look at the Xbox now. They are getting their feet in the door with a product that can be greatly expanded and improved upon. Unlike WinMo 6 which didn't have anyway to grow and improve, mainly due to the ancient kernels it was built upon.
I think WP7 launched on 11/10/10, so that about 50 days till end of year. So 674000 / 50 = about 13500 a day. If you take a million divided by 13500 you get 74 days. So that's comparable or almost equal to what the iPhone took to get to a million. So in this way more competitive market, I think that's pretty good. Either way its doing good enough, and sure as hell isn't a KIN.

Tom Servo

WinMo ran on the WinCE kernel. WP7 runs on the WinCE kernel.

TriAxis

I read an article awhile that explained all the changes they made to the kernals though. I dont remember most if it, but they were pretty major. Like the old ones could only run 32 processes at max, and the new ones could theoretically run like 16000. Other stuff with how they handle CPU cycles and memory now. I'll try to find the link.

Jon T

Like you said of Zune…

bobwhite

If if wasn't bad MS would not be hiding the numbers.

GP007

"Bad" in this case is relative, bad compared to iPhone and Android right now? Yes. Bad in general? No. It depends on how you look at it. 1m+ by the end of 2010 world wide seems right, and what about up till today? I'm thinking that 7 months in and they've probably sold 3-3.5million.

One also has to keep in mind that MS doesn't talk about it because it's direct competition is doing so well, regardless of how good the number are or could be they won't come close to the big 2 yet, so you'll get negative press regardless.

The only thing one should bother with right now is marketshare. Is WP going up in the smartphone market? Yes, Then it's selling, maybe not like hotcakes but this isn't the end just the start.

Brian

Are they really going up in share – or just replacing Windows Mobile market share?

Brian

If he's right these numbers are scary bad. At the time they released the "2 million licenses" figure best case put them at sales of 500,000 / month (the announcement was 3 months after launch, add one month for channel inventory and divide those 4 months into 2 million). By that estimate they should have sold somewhere between 1 and 1.25 million phones in the 4Q – this estimate is a little over half that number (and in the busy product launch/holiday selling season no less).

This would explain the discounting, LG's unhappiness, and the tepid carrier response.
Moki

I don't see how it can be called a "catastrophic failure" if the product is still being sold and expanded upon. "Very slow start" would be a more apt phrase. . .
manyuabhi

they have 2% of the world wide phone market, now that should certainly be lasrger than 647k in all respect to the author and neilson

Brian

THey have 2% of new sales, not 2% of the market.

Gambit

Before the HTC Hero, nobody wanted to mess with android phones, and sales were as catastrophics as wp7, if not more.

WP7 needs its "Hero" phone, a flagship which shows all the potential of the platforms, and it's not the current OEM, stuck at the minimal specs, which will bring it, only Nokia will bring it.
Tnuctihs

Many of my friends have said to me that they will replace their iPoos with WP7 but are currently still under contract with another provider and cannot do so until their contract expires in a few months.

Surely this will affect the take up of WP7??

Brian

I don't think so. Apple continues to have unequaled customer satisfaction numbers while at the same time consumer interest in WP7 is dropping.

jrtorrents

I am a wp7 owner (Omnia 7) but serves them right to see no one not buying not buying WP7 phones, I mean they don't have believe in their own platform why would other people be? They keep sending all the much needed apps and features to other platforms whiles ignoring their own.

- Haven't had Nodo yet so I don't have copy and paste yet

- Still can't save my camera settings , which we are told is a feature but I find it a really poor choice of a feature

- We still don't have a native msn app.. android, Iphone even blackberry does .. Microsoft released an official Msn app for android and iPhone but windows phone.. its a big no!!

- Bing maps is non existent where I live.. I can't find any local searches neither does the map work,… cant search pictures either

- Resuming apps from screen lock is terribly slow

- Syncing outlook is very difficult (much easier to do even with an iphone)

- No calender

- Since there is no file explorer and no skydrive support for the office apps how do they expect us to open office files?

I could go on and on, am not calling for multitasking or something out of the blue, i just want some of the basic features I had in my win6.5.. if you don't keep your current customers happy.. how will you convince others to join in?
TriAxis

here is the link that shows the kernel changes I was referring to. WinMo 6.5 was still running on the 5.2 kernels created in 2004. While WP7 runs on a hybrid 6.x kernel. The 2 main difference is the Ram and Process limit changes. Where WinMo could only allocate 32 Mb to each process or app, WP7 could allocate 2GB theoretically. So with WinMo even if you had 512mb of ram each process could only use 32mb, which was the main cause of slowness with larger apps. And the process limit from WinMo was changed from a 32 process limit to over 32000 theoretically.
http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/aa908989….
http://fxfp.com/ Alex F.

Quote from Google News:
"He took the 1.5 million figure, subtracted the number of phones Microsoft gave to employees, and factored in typical industry supply and sales differences."

So he knows NOTHING