Around 3.75 million Windows Phone 7 handsets in the wild, sales decelerating?

May 20, 2011 | By Surur

FBusers

I know our readers are not fans of the fuzzy maths we often use to attempt to find out how many Windows Phone 7 handsets are out there, but if we accept Gartner’s figure of 1.6 million sold to end users in Q1 2011 it does add an important data point which allows us to calibrate the other main source we have been using – Facebook activity data.

Using this handy collection of data we can see at the start of Q1 2011 there were 222,194 monthly Facebook users of the WP7 Facebook app, and at the start of Q2 2011 463,898. This represents the addition of 241,704 users over the 3 month period. Accepting Gartner’s 1.6 million number, we get a ratio of 6.62 real users for each Facebook user.

If this ratio held, this means the current 564,334 users represents 3.73 million Windows Phone 7 handsets in the wild.

Running the same calculation for the integrated Facebook app produces a similar number of 3.83 million Facebook users.

Using the same ratio we can see in Q4 2010 1.47 million WP7 handsets were sold, in Q1 2011 1.6 million (from Gartner) and so far in Q2 2011 665,000 and projected for the full quarter 1.2 million, representing a decline in the number of new users, rather than the expected growth.

Of course all of this depends in the accuracy of Gartner’s numbers and the ratios remaining the same, but simply looking at the rate of FB users growth from the graph above it is clear the rate of growth has reduced.

Of course none of this tells us why, but at the most basic level if could simply be the lack of new handsets to stimulate demand. With a new Android handset announced every week selling the same old Windows Phone 7 handset for the last 6 months will certainly be difficult.

How do our readers feel about the numbers? Let us know below.

About Surur

Site Admin and Windows Phone enthusiast, he has been using Windows Mobile devices since before they were called PocketPC’s. He is currently sporting a HTC 7 Trophy.

Tagged market share, sales, windows phone 7

http://twitter.com/Snatchertas Tasos Greebo

WP7 is still in the “early adopter” demographic area. It only stands to reason that early adopters satisfied their device needs soon after availability on their carriers. I expect a spike with the introduction of the Verizon device and after that I expect that a whole lot more of people will wait to buy the more “mature” and feature complete mango devices.
http://twitter.com/peaceofmercy Peace of Mercy

I’m just speaking for myself, but the wait has been about WP7 coming to Verizon, that’s all. I’m slightly conflicted as to jump right in with the HTC Trophy, wait for Mango, or even wait for Nokia. Having my doubts that Verizon will bring out another WP7 device anytime soon, given its approach towards anything other than Android, I’m expecting to have the Trophy in my pocket very soon.
Monkey D Black

I know every current windows phone holder is also waiting on newer devices (like me) so when new devices comes out most likely we all will upgrade.

I want to see what Nokia is going to do, and I feel that HTC will try to hold their own and come out with some good devices too. the Mango release looks sweet, lets hope the Hardware is sweet too
http://twitter.com/VizagDude Satish Pamidiparthi

I for one am going to upgrade the moment Nokia’s latest and greatest WP7 start rolloing out.
Also, once Verizon start selling theirs, I’m sure there will be many more users. I’ve seen the Verizon’s HTC Trophy and palyed around for a bit (my collegue’s husband works for MS phone marketing division and he gave her one to use). I must say it looks and feels prerry solid. The only way for WP7 from here is going up in numbers.
http://www.facebook.com/nizzon Johan Nilsson

If this is based on the Facebook-app maybe its because the Facebook app sucks so tremendously bad. Slow loadingtimes, it doesnt clear notifications, it misses alot of features. I use the fb-web-app just as much as the app.
How hard can it be to fix it?
http://twitter.com/TroySchuster Troy Schuster

The only reason I bought a 1st generation handset is because I grew impatient. I wanted to use WP7 as I saw great potential in the OS and the sleekness of it, even though it was a new breed, different than other same ol’ configurations out there. But I was really waiting for better hardware. None others were announced or on the horizon other than Nokia’s family and recently an HTC announcement.

With the initial delays in the updating and lack of other more enticing hardware (which is out there for other OSs), I feel that there are many ‘want to have’s’ but are waitng for the next gen handsets and confirmation of updating fixed (which looks like it has). Even though there has been issue with the Samsung handsets in the update process I prefer the quality components and capabilities (comparing Samsungs camera to others usually comes up trumps).

Then, in Australia, the announcement of 4G LTE with the rollout starting at the end of 2010.

So I bought a Samsung Focus (which btw I really love using), to quench my impatience. With the new LTE and new handsets being released along with Mango – there is quite a bit to consider. Are there any WP7′s announced that are going to be available for 4G? Will the new gen handsets have front facing camera’s that will be able to make use of Skype (the 1st gens, I believe, don’t have front facing cameras?).

So, Microsoft is getting the OS on track (esp with the features of Mango being released by the EOY). Now it’s up to the hardware companies to get good configurations out there for us to drool over and pass our hardearned money over the counter so we can slide our fingers over those bright, shiny screens. Things are ticking over too slowly – things now need to speed up.
GP007

I’m not going to argue if the numbers are on the money or not because I think to date MS has probably sold 3.5-4million be it to the channel or directly to users. The thing I’d like to talk about is the slowdown in sales, I think this is a given and is also expected, the 1st batch of phones are pretty old now and aside from the Arrive and the minor updated HD7S we haven’t seen anything new for quite some time.

This is why MS’s timing could be looked at as either a bit late or actually right on time. With the 1st patch of phones running it’s course and starting to be phased out, MS is ready to start talking Mango on the 24th AND, at least I hope for this, show a few soon to ship phones with it. Though it could be too early to talk new phones that we probably won’t see till Sept/Oct, but who knows. New phones and a new spike in WP sales. That’s how it goes.

Anonymous

That argument is ok for you and me, somewhat informed power users. But 2/3 year contracts expire every day so there is a steady stream of potential customers. Plus that base of 3.5/4M users are talking to people, potentially increasing the demand. My guess is 75% of the people waiting for new “mango” devices are already using WP.

If there is in fact any decline in sales (honestly don’t know if these guys have a clue) it’s most likely because the retail sales force is doing such a good job of steering comsumers away from WP, even when they ask for it, for the next best greatest phone, till next week.

Anonymous

No. Q2 still have more than a month left. That would make the your Q2: ~1.9, am I wrong?

http://fxfp.com/ Alex F.

1.8 by my estimate – so yes, the growth is not slowing but still increasing. Add to that expected increase from Verizon and it don’t think we will see any slowdown soon:
- in summer 2011 increase from Verizon’s entry (plus AT&T’s increased marketing efforts)
- in autumn 2011 increase from Mango release and new wave of phones (plus the huge marketing blitz)
- in winter 2011/12 and spring 2012 increase from Nokia’s entry
- in mid-2012 increase from global roll-out
- in late 2012 increase from version 8
etc

Anonymous

Yes, your math is right. I want to make a point here. Look at people’s comments all over the web. When a reporter/blogger write something, most people just automatically accept it as a fact, then try to give an explanation. In many cases, and in most cases with WP7 sales data, reporter are wrong. (I am not saying writters in this website). those include very smart people, include my Ph. D. fiends, include my geeky computer engineers. The majority readers who don’t comment here tend to do that even more. They accept what they read on the Internet without a doubt.

I read/write about WP7 all the time, I can tell you the most of the reports about WP7 sales are wrong. It’s sad how many people are misinformed.

http://fxfp.com/ Alex F.

Indeed, the amount of misinformation and trolling about WP7 is scary.

Anonymous

Actually the ability to read and comprehend a simple article is what’s scary.
http://fxfp.com/ Alex F.

I know what the article says, but the graph does not match the article!
Anonymous

The (red) graph goes from 463,000 on 4/1 (according to the article, graph agrees) to 564,00 (also according to the article, graph agrees) users at the latest. So a 101,000 Facebook user increase. Using the Facebook-to-total ratio of 6.62 (also from the article) we get 668,000 new total users so far this quarter.

Make sure you’re reading the right dates off the graph.

Anonymous

No, its 665,000 so far in Q2, and extrapolating that to the 40 days left in the quarter gives you 1.2 million.

Anonymous

Can you stop writing such speculative articles and get something more positive and worthwhile to write? We are hardly 7 months into this new platform. What did you expect? 100 million devices to be sold in this period? You have suddenly started to show pessimism and negativity in your articles. Chill out, take a break and come back with the Mango updates on the 24th.
Anonymous

No. Lets take you blue line (red line won’t make difference), Q1 is about 480k-280K = 200K users, Q4 is so far 660k-480K = 180K users, that approximately make it 1.2m phones according to your numbers.

You still didn’t count the 40 days.

Anonymous

Blue line is about 550,000 to 640,000 for Q2 (quarter begins 4/1 – roughly halfway between the 3/16 and 4/16 marks on the graph).

Anonymous

yes. I readed the wrong point. but extrapolating is very subjective, it doesn’t make strong argment. Acutally the two quarters are very similar to each other. Thanks,
Anonymous

No, it’s not “very subjective,” it’s a useful mathematical tool. Now, given the apparent deceleration a curved fit might be a better choice than a straight line (that would make the projection worse). This also doesn’t account for Verizon, although I doubt they will see more than 100,000 additional sales because of Verizon (basically 2X the monthly handset model sales of an average handset). The projection looks pretty solid.

Anonymous

Even though I don’t agree with your conclusion about sales slows, I want to say that my comments is about those reporter with malicious mind or don’t know what they are talking about. You are on the opposite group. Your posts are fare and informational.

I want take another example: ZDNet’s Matthew Miller, a respected smartphone writter. He just wrote: “New WP7 devices launching on AT&T and Verizon and I do care” in his post. He mentioned WP7 sales is “lackluster” at the beginning. This is largely wrong. If you are interested, I can tell you why this is wrong. But any way, you can see how the data flowing around about WP7 are so wrong, and everyone believes that.

I saw the Gartner data, that’s world wide data, need a lot of justification to say anything about WP7′s performance. ComScore’s data are US data, but not direct market share, most reporters take that as market share. NPD published Q4 data (US) saying WP7 has 2% market share, but they didn’t acknowledge (purposely, I think) WP7 only sold 7 weeks out of 13 weeks in Q4.

I put all those information together, I come to the conclusion: 1) WP7 is having about 4% market share in US now. 2) WinMo market share is diminishing quikly in the US. 3) WP7 market share is increasing steadily. 4) WinMo + WP7 market share will start going up in 2 ~ 3 months.

Anonymous

Which is of course exactly what I said in this article here.
http://wmpoweruser.com/great-news-windows-phone-hits-7-us-market-share-in-march-2011/

Anonymous

No, its 665,000 so far in Q2, and extrapolating that to the 40 days left in the quarter gives you 1.2 million.
Anonymous

Yes, you are wrong. The 1.2 million number was projected for the full quarter based on sales of 665,000 so far in the quarter. From the article:

“so far in Q2 2011 665,000 and projected for the full quarter 1.2 million”

Zii

I stopped using the installed app on my HD7 because it’s way too laggy and bugged…I use the mobile website instead. Maybe other users had the same feeling and stopped using the app…

Firetap

I also wondered if the decline could be attributed to the Facebook app seeming to get worse with every update.
rb

I am also planning to stop using wp7… The most junk phone ever seen in my life… frustrating…

azimutha

I have logged onto the FB website 5 times ever and have no interest in it. So bear in mind there are people using a WP7 device that are never counted using that methodology.

My main concern is that carriers seem oblivious to anything but Android at least in the market in which I live. Verizon has long been king but despite a brief flurry of attention around the iPhone coming to their network, not much since. AT&T is now officially in my area but flogs Android phones in their paper ads. I know, I know, who reads the news on dead trees anymore? Well, a lot of people do in smaller markets. Besides, there are even ads for Android phones on this site.

It makes me wonder if Microsoft is just too late to the the party.
azimutha

I have logged onto the FB website 5 times ever and have no interest in it. So bear in mind there are people using a WP7 device that are never counted using that methodology.

My main concern is that carriers seem oblivious to anything but Android at least in the market in which I live. Verizon has long been king but despite a brief flurry of attention around the iPhone coming to their network, not much since. AT&T is now officially in my area but flogs Android phones in their paper ads. I know, I know, who reads the news on dead trees anymore? Well, a lot of people do in smaller markets. Besides, there are even ads for Android phones on this site.

It makes me wonder if Microsoft is just too late to the the party.

Anonymous

Recently, Microsoft has always been late to parties. However, it stays longer and entertains longer. In the long run, Microsoft will win more friends and more users. Patience.
Anonymous

Recently, Microsoft has always been late to parties. However, it stays longer and entertains longer. In the long run, Microsoft will win more friends and more users. Patience.
Anonymous

No , you’re wrong. That methodology attempts to account for the new FB users by figuring a ratio of users to non users (using the Gartner data). It’s not perfect, but it’s also not an unreasonable approach. So you are included in that figure.

William C Bonner

I”m on T-Mobile. I’m watching the phone releases, looking for one that actually supports the new higher speed networks. I got a WP7 developer phone last july, so I show up in the statistics, but I still use my older 6.5 phone as my primary phone. I’m not eligible to get a subsidized phone till next month. The AT&T/TMobile deal brings enough uncertainty that I don’t want to shell out much cash for a new phone right now, and I continue to wait for a compelling upgrade.
http://www.seriousinternets.com Tim Smith

Sales aren’t going to be great because it didn’t launch on all of the carriers plus this (whether they admit it or not) was a soft launch. It will surge for Mango I have no doubt.
http://www.seriousinternets.com Tim Smith

Sales aren’t going to be great because it didn’t launch on all of the carriers plus this (whether they admit it or not) was a soft launch. It will surge for Mango I have no doubt.

Doug Simmons

You’re aware that the deceleration may actually be accelerating?

Why will sales suddenly surge as a result of Mango? Isn’t WP good enough the way it is for a facelift to make a significant difference to consumers, carriers and retailers?

Meanwhile, any chance that the competition might roll out facelifts of their own and step their game up in general or is everybody else just sort of sitting around while mobile miracles are being developed in Redmond?

Tph

Just a short story (I just wanted to get a second WP for testing apps):
1. Large retailer: one device with empty battery on display, three different devices in stock(!) but only shown if you explicitly asked for them
2. Two carriers: not a single device on display but in (local) stock if you asked
3. A Best Buy subsidiary: nothing in store, none in stock, also had to ask.
All had price tags way above market (that was in April). Current entry prices are even lower ~170 Euros incl. tax (HTC 7 Trophy, LG Optimus 7)
http://www.heise.de/preisvergleich/?cat=umtsover&xf=148_Windows%20Phone%207&sort=p

So it will be very hard for them to sell less when Mango is release and Nokia offers devices with WP7.5/8

Where did Android or iOS really innovate?

zzz

There are several factors:
-Pent-up demand early on.
-It seems a bit of Q4 to Q1/Q2 slowdown happened to everyone in the smartphone market.
-New Android phones now making people wait for similar HW for WP7

Last but the least:
-Sites like this and Paul Thurrot’s making a huge bullshit fuss out of the update process dampening the WP7 enthusiasm. Yes, some people do get influenced by blog editorials (it was obvious here).

Anonymous

Apple sold 16,240,000 iPhones in the 4th calendar quarter of 2010, they sold 18,650,000 in the first calendar quarter of 2011. Doesn’t look like a slow down to me.

zzz

iphone expanded its market footprint with Verizon launch. Overall flatness/slowdown was widely noted in the financial news media.

Anonymous

According to Canalys there were 32.9 million Android handsets sold in Q4 2010, and 35.7 million in Q1 2011. Do you have any references to back up your claims of a widely noted flatness/slowdown?

Maybe you’re just looking at it upside down?
Anonymous

According to Canalys there were 32.9 million Android handsets sold in Q4 2010, and 35.7 million in Q1 2011. Do you have any references to back up your claims of a widely noted flatness/slowdown?

Maybe you’re just looking at it upside down?

zzz

Once again you are quoting a global total sales number which does not necessarily reflect the growth rate on a given market segment such as those of Europe and US targeted by WP7. In fact, that Canalys report specificly mentions the growth was in large part due to Asia (not a WP market yet) surging to become the biggest market with 37% of shipment in Q1. http://www.canalys.com/pr/2011/r2011051.html

I’ve seen the slowdown mentioned in several stock news articles past couple months. I don’t need to provide any links to everyone who thinks I’m upside down. lol
zzz

Once again you are quoting a global total sales number which does not necessarily reflect the growth rate on a given market segment such as those of Europe and US targeted by WP7. In fact, that Canalys report specificly mentions the growth was in large part due to Asia (not a WP market yet) surging to become the biggest market with 37% of shipment in Q1. http://www.canalys.com/pr/2011/r2011051.html

I’ve seen the slowdown mentioned in several stock news articles past couple months. I don’t need to provide any links to everyone who thinks I’m upside down. lol
zzz

Once again you are quoting a global total sales number which does not necessarily reflect the growth rate on a given market segment such as those of Europe and US targeted by WP7. In fact, that Canalys report specificly mentions the growth was in large part due to Asia (not a WP market yet) surging to become the biggest market with 37% of shipment in Q1. http://www.canalys.com/pr/2011/r2011051.html

I’ve seen the slowdown mentioned in several stock news articles past couple months. I don’t need to provide any links to everyone who thinks I’m upside down. lol

Paul

C’mon. Are you really going to blame the update fiasco and terrible communication on Thurrot? MS dropped the ball along with the OEMs.

zzz

Like I said below, the update could have been handled better. But what really hurt the platform was over-the-top negative reaction from some popular 2nd/3rd tier bloggers like surur and Thurrott.

William C Bonner

In the early hype stage for WP7, which was a year ago now, I was under the impression that WP7 updates would be handled directly by Microsoft, and the process would be much smoother than on any previous Windows Mobile system, without being carrier dependent.

The rollout of NoDo put that entire assumption in question, with different phones on different carriers getting significantly different timing, and the developer phones not getting updates at all.

Because the developer phones are prerelease hardware I’m less concerned with that so much as what happens if I were to have an unlocked carrier neutral phone, and how would the updates for that be handled?

At this point I’m waiting to compare features on actual Mango released hardware and whatever Apple’s next offering is. I like WP7 and believe that the MS Muscle will help it continue to grow but I like the apparent maturity of the iPhone. I don’t want to buy something now and hope that it gets upgraded with some feature in the future.

Rolud

I think the numbers will now decrease a lot, just because Microsoft is much too slow to give the updates (see the total NoDo fiasco… promised for beginning of 2011, and still not here for some users !!)
Today, Microsoft shows a lot of new features with Mango, and they promise it for this fall. That’s means if we are really, really lucky… we will maybe have it in February or March 2012…!!

With such a poor communication and such a poor interest on WP7 customers… Microsoft will never increase the sales of WP7…

Guezt

I agree, the lack of frequent updates ruin the WP7 experience. NoDo was a fiasco, and the release of Mango is too late. Even fall 2011 is too late.
Anonymous

Yes, Microsoft needs to move FAST! Slowness will hurt them real bad.
Anonymous

Yes, Microsoft needs to move FAST! Slowness will hurt them real bad.
zzz

I smell trolls here.

Update could have been handled better but it wasn’t the slowneess that hurt the platform. It was rush24, surur, Paul Thurrott who screamed the end of world because of it and the readers who believed it. If everyone calmly handled the news like Cnet or even Engadget did, people’s perception would have much different. So we are going to get a huge Mango update instead of small bits here and there, big freaking deal.

Anonymous

Sooooo true!
MindFireS

zzz: “I smell trolls here.”

But the fact is I can not understand how you could smell anything when your head is so far up MS backside…

So your saying that 2nd and 3rd tier bloggers are more effective then MS Marketing/PR department with all their resources, a company that invested half a billion dollars in WP7 kick off? If that is the case then the whole department needs to be fired, heck all of management on all levels should be. zzz may be time for you to wake up and smell the coffee.

zzz

I smell trolls here.

Update could have been handled better but it wasn’t the slowneess that hurt the platform. It was rush24, surur, Paul Thurrott who screamed the end of world because of it and the readers who believed it. If everyone calmly handled the news like Cnet or even Engadget did, people’s perception would have much different. So we are going to get a huge Mango update instead of small bits here and there, big freaking deal.
JamesSB

At least the update process is not as bad as Android. Android updates are abysmal.

Guest

Very attractive high end WP7 phones are dramatically missing. Nothing very innovative regarding hardware.

Regarding the OS, I still believe it’s too much lock down, with services over-focused on the US and UK market.
To me the major weak points of WP7 are all the crappy MS services (Bing Search sucks, Bing Map sucks, Skydrive sucks, etc.) . Google services are far better and obviously there are also more attractive for the customers, especially European customers.

Anonymous

Skydrive is the best online storage anyone can find today. 25GB free space! Why do you think it sucks? Bing search and maps applications definitely need to be updated to support superior services on WP7. I can’t believe it that Microsoft is adding features for iPhones and Andriod before doing anything for its own product. Shameless, yet a money-minded move. Microsoft does need to open up that marketplace to more than just 17-35 countries. Andriod apps are now available in over 100 countries! Slowness is going to hurt Microsft real bad!

Guezt

Skydrive really sucks for the following reasons:
- the 65MB limitation
- No way to upload folders (contrary to Dropbox)
- Html Skydrive website is terrible: I still did not understand how I can delete several photos simultaneously. It is apparently impossible (!)

Anonymous

The limitations you are stating are purely enforced if you access SkyDrive through the browser … I have uploaded large, 1080p clips which were over 1.81GB in size to SkyDrive using Live Mesh, and I have uploaded folders, with their structure intact to SkyDrive as well.

Please do not speak of what you do not understand.

http://chmun77.myopenid.com/ Koka

Skydrive is NOTHING compared to a local SD card memory. What if internet is not available when you need to edit documents? Android FTW!!
Anonymous

don’t compare apples and oranges. we are talking about a service available on the cloud and not local SD memory cards!

Doug Simmons

As tempting as it may be to write this data off as nonsense or a gross underestimation because you dislike the Facebook app presumably more so than users of other platforms don’t like their own respective Facebook apps, keep in mind that while each single user on this Facebook scrape data may represent a smaller number of overall WP devices in the wild versus the ratios of other platforms either because of app goodness or some sort of lower affinity for things like Facebook being a trait of the average WP early adopter, Surur is attempting to take that into account by laying it over corroborating stats from conventional sources. He’s trying real hard.

More importantly though, that the Facebook app bundled with WP sucks and how much use it attracts over time (even relative to the alternative app as you can see in the chart) is something that remains more or less a constant factor, so using this data to compare the sales performance of something relative to its own performance historically, in other words to get an indication of decelerating sales, this here Facebook scraping data is as good as it gets. Good as it gets meaning better than random outfits and Russians claiming to be analysts, better than Microsoft which has had at least one incident in the past of exaggerating sales of things they actually report.

Now I can understand all you data haters saying Facebook app this and anomalies that when crying foul here, data assembled by someone who to my knowledge has nothing to gain by somehow contorting the data, but if you’d actually look at the data yourself you’d see some headline-worthy figures of apparent WP sales performance withering fast. For example, last week’s cumulative WP gain versus the same week last month reveals a 67% drop and about a 75% drop from the same week in March. This guy nailed Verizon iPhone sales figures reported by Verizon with his predictions. The data’s good, albeit not pretty to you.

Regarding lateness to parties, Microsoft has the resources to make up for that but they appear, and this may change, maybe not, not to be going full throttle at all. Maybe they figure they’re at the point of diminishing returns and that they should stay mostly focused on their money makers while sort of letting this ride quietly. Maybe they’ve got their crosshairs on the iPad. Maybe it’s just not worth it even though it appeared to be last year.

Early adopters… would you still be going on and on about early adoption if this were selling well? We got our first hit from a WP7 on July 15th. Bet Surur got his first at least a month or two earlier than that. Those guys, they’re the early adopters. Several months after WP’s actual launches, the consensus appears to be around 3.5m sold. In the same time frame with Android, several months in, it would take just twelve days for 3.5m additional Androids to be activated. Don’t confuse early adoption with persistent low, slow and slowing adoption. Or whatever, confuse it, doesn’t matter.

I’d suggest hedging your optimism a little about Mango and Nokia changing things significantly. History suggests the timetables are very exaggerated for both the rolling out of Mango and Nokia rolling out and pushing WP phones hard rather than focusing largely on MeeGo and Symbian. During that time there’s a window for a potential fallout of interest from the other OEMs, maybe that’s already happened, further cooling of interest from carriers and also there’s a lot of time between now and any good things happening for both Nokia and Microsoft to get cold feet about WP and about each other.

On the other hand, what do I know.

Sweet UI and absolutely impressive battery life, didn’t crash on me once, smooth and fast, games — the platform itself has pretty much everything nice and in spades. The product’s right. Hopefully over time that is the thing that will matter most, that WP’s terrific right now, not the timing and deals with other companies and carrier lameness, general uneasiness about taking a risk and the like. All right? Good luck.

Doug Simmons

Woops bad math on the Android figure, disregard.
Anonymous

Well said. People also need to remember that Nokia is bleeding smart phone market share like a stuck pig. It appears likely that Apple may pass them by as soon as the 3rd quarter of this year.

http://twitter.com/abhi1manyu Abhimanyu Jamwal

Well I don’t think the intrest is tipid or decelerating but I feel actually they are gicing the end users an incentive not to buy the phone as everything good is comming “this fall”. If and only if they had said ” a newer version comming next month or you will see a few more improvements in the coming months” a user will buy the phone. I mean if someone tells me that abtter version is cmming soon, why on earth will I buy a phone ready with hardware in my mind. The Microsoft PR machine is again proving to be the difference. Android will never say a better version is comming, they always say we will keep on improving this version. Same goes with iOS.
Anonymous

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Wait ’til the Mango update and the new phones, especially the Nokia phones. If WP7 sales haven’t picked up in the months after these two events, then it will be time to worry. We also need to wait for Verizon.

But now it’s too early. WP7 is two years late to the market, against two entrenched competitors. This is a long hard fight that Microsoft is going to have to go through. Anyone who thought WP7 would be a massive success out of the box is a fool. Microsoft lost mind share, and they are going to have to fight and claw to get it back.

TopSalesRep

EVEN if Verizon is picking up the phone, BUT they are not promoting Windows Phone and salesreps are not selling the phone. WHY even bother. Hopefully MS will pay some kind incentive to salesrep; win a trip, bonus, etc to increase the sell of Windows Phone 7. As for now, if you go into one of the kiosks and salesrep are not promoting or selling the phones. It’s DOA (dead on arrival).
Also, MS needs to install apps like Netflix, Bank of America, Compass(HTC), Yelp, MSN Money Stocks, Last.fm (these are free) and perhaps one or two paid XBOX live games.
AND have carriers train the reps to use and demonstrate the apps to people.
Very frustrating to walk into a kiosk and look at the phone and not knowing all the functionality of the OS.

So MS must install FREE and PAID apps on the demo phones, and train salesrep on how to sell the phone by demonstrating the apps to the potential buyers, and perhaps pay incentive to top salesperson.

Paul

WP7′s success is now up to Nokia and Mango. The rest of this is really not very meaningful.
bch

Word of mouth takes time. Pent up demand accounts for the higher than average demand on first release. A lot of WM owners waited to jump to WP7. Sales predictably dropped off as that built-in demand was satisfied. Slowly but surely demand will increase as people see the phone in person.

I was at lunch with a male doctor, a female ad professional, and three professional moms, all in early 40s. The ad pro said she wants to replace her BB with my phone (a Focus) and the doctor (an iPhone 3GS owner) was really interested, especially in the calendar and Live Mail integration. That and the fact that I had my Netflix tile prominently displayed on my home screen.

Working against an upswing in demand is the lack of newer hardware. I think younger buyers care more about “new” hardware than older ones, frankly. They read the blogs more actively, and they are constantly assaulted with and influenced by articles of the latest and greatest dual core Android phone, which is really a marketing technique of the mfrs to keep their products in the free media space. Microsoft’s strength of hardware conformity is also its marketing weakness, at least among the crowd who think specs rule.

At a certain point in time, Windows Phone will reach a level of concentration to be seen as the acceptable but still exotic choice. People who care about that kind of thing will eventually abandon their current platform and jump in with WP. I suspect this will happen when Mango hits, and the tech blogs talk about nothing else for a month or so.
bch

Word of mouth takes time. Pent up demand accounts for the higher than average demand on first release. A lot of WM owners waited to jump to WP7. Sales predictably dropped off as that built-in demand was satisfied. Slowly but surely demand will increase as people see the phone in person.

I was at lunch with a male doctor, a female ad professional, and three professional moms, all in early 40s. The ad pro said she wants to replace her BB with my phone (a Focus) and the doctor (an iPhone 3GS owner) was really interested, especially in the calendar and Live Mail integration. That and the fact that I had my Netflix tile prominently displayed on my home screen.

Working against an upswing in demand is the lack of newer hardware. I think younger buyers care more about “new” hardware than older ones, frankly. They read the blogs more actively, and they are constantly assaulted with and influenced by articles of the latest and greatest dual core Android phone, which is really a marketing technique of the mfrs to keep their products in the free media space. Microsoft’s strength of hardware conformity is also its marketing weakness, at least among the crowd who think specs rule.

At a certain point in time, Windows Phone will reach a level of concentration to be seen as the acceptable but still exotic choice. People who care about that kind of thing will eventually abandon their current platform and jump in with WP. I suspect this will happen when Mango hits, and the tech blogs talk about nothing else for a month or so.
http://chmun77.myopenid.com/ Koka

Not surprising at all….. With high end phones like Samsung Galaxy S 2 and the new upcoming HTC models, WP7 sales will drop even further more. Lots of consumers will NOT wait till Mango which still > 6 months away. I will shelf my Omnia 7 for SGS 2 soon to enjoy app switching and smooth multitasking experiences instead.
Jai

the reason most people don’t buy WP7 is because there is only 1 good looking wp7 device… the samsung focus
all the others are horrible designed!…. I would be in verizon or t-mobile, but they don’t have the focus, so I had to go to the crappy at&t
all the HTC are not good looking!!!!!!
so we have to wait for NOKIA … maybe they will design good looking devices… if they do… I’ll change myself from at&t to verizon or t-mobile or whatever

so…… if microsoft wants to really sell a lot of wo7…. they need cell phones companies to build ‘beautiful devices’!!!!!!!! that’s the only way they will sell lots of wp7
nuff said!
Excelsior