Business Insider: When I asked the audience "Does anybody think RIM will still be around in 2015" the response was silence

April 28, 2011 | By Surur

windowsphone7-funerallg3 Business Insider reports from an AppNation panel on mobile platforms which included developers and marketers from app companies, as well as reps from other parts of the mobile industry like carriers and chipset makers.

While for those present the first and second mobile platform was clear, the third was no longer Blackberry.

Based on Microsoft’s resources and the Nokia deal, Windows Phone 7 was now a clear contender. "Microsoft is buying developers and it will buy distribution" one said.

In response developers are taking the resources they put into RIM and gradually moving them over to Windows Phone. This has been confirmed recently by a survey by AppAccelerator in which Windows Phone 7 overtook Blackberry in developer interest. Distimo estimated Marketplace will overtake Blackberry App World within the year.

RIM has also been seeing market share losses in USA, while Windows Phone 7 has been seeing gains. Significantly, when the audience was asked "does anybody think RIM will still be around in 2015" the response was silence.

Update: As if to underline the prediction RIM lowered its profit forecast for the first quarter of 2011 Thursday amid weak shipments of its BlackBerry devices. RIM also said it expects revenue to come in slightly below its previous guidance of between $5.2 and $5.6 billion.

RIM blamed the earnings and revenue shortfall on weaker than anticipated shipments of its BlackBerry phones. The company also said that more of its sales have shifted toward lower cost handsets. Trading in RIM shared were briefly halted after the announcement, and when resumed fell more than 10% in after hour trading.

RIM’s QNX-powered handsets are also at present rumoured to be delayed, with their 6.1 OS expected to be renamed Blackberry OS 7.0

About Surur

Site Admin and Windows Phone enthusiast, he has been using Windows Mobile devices since before they were called PocketPC’s. He is currently sporting a HTC 7 Trophy.

Tagged blackberry, market share, RIM, windows phone 7

kdk

really isnt surprising, they have no ecosystem… i think they will do a nokia and jump onto another platform… probably android, unless microsoft can throw money at them.

ojojoj

how could they go on android? their main selling point is security because they are the end to end OS with full encryption, etc.

android is by far the least secure OS there is…. i could see microsoft hooking it up with them though since one of the chassis was a "blackberry like" device

kdk

that is true. but they already have app compatibility, and their apps are developed in java (or something similar anyway) … so it would be an easier transition… but you never know

Gabor

MS need to insist on the business strong points of WM: Office, outlook, etc.
They have the ecosystem advantage as most companies are already using PC running Windows.

But MS have to improve:
- Security
- Office Hub integrating Skyfire
- I find Skyfire really crappy compared to competitors such as Dropbox. It has to be greatly improved.
- I am not using Skyfire because of the 65MB limitation, because you cannot upload folders, because you cnnot delete several files at the same time (only one by one). Ridiculous.

thebigm72

I recommend you use Skydrive not Skyfire

da9th_one

thanks for clarifying that…dude had me scratching my head a bit…

Gabor

oh yes. Sorry about that.
I was really tired this morning.

Brian

The Dropbox interface is almost perfect – it's easily one of my favorite mobility tools.

gabor

WP, not WM sorry. Old habitude…

(PS: Why we cannot edit our messages on WMpoweruser??? This is bad.)
GP007

Once Office 365 hits RTW, and Mango adds braoder Office sync and support plus the ability to access private networks though things like VPN etc added with the management features for phones then the argument for enterprise to not pick WP7 over RIM or the others is going to be hard. Once RIM starts to lose it's grip on the enterprise then it's all over for them.

If this happens then they're going to be the next Palm, simple as that. Once MS nails the Win8 tablet UI down as well and starts to push into that area then RIM is pretty much doomed. The playbook so far is looking like a sales flop and the fact they're trying to emulate android apps is a sign that they basically have no native app support of their own, it's a joke really. There's no 2nd HP sitting around who'll be interested in someone like RIM, and at best MS "might" buy some part of RIM, maybe some patents and server messaging stuff, but the whole company? No way.
thebigm72

Microsoft has its own enterprise technology and security etc. Just needs to implement. They might pick up some BB infrastructure or something.
Joseph Heath Wallis

google will buy RIM to make them an official outlet for Android. They are dying to get into the enterprise and having access to every BES will allow that

http://www.facebook.com/jessiethe3rd Jessie Anderson

Google buying RIM sounds interesting but it ain't going to happen. Why? OEMs.

walletless

Whoever thinks RIM is dying really needs to visit countries like India, Brazil, etc. I was recently in India and was surprised at how many people use RIM. Most enterprises there support BB only – so buying competing phones like iPhone and WP7 is not even an option. The IT folks are very slow there, and it will be light years before they even decide to evaluate other platforms.

I also noticed that having a BB is like a status symbol there – people really *want* it – not just because the company they work in forces them to get one. BBM is used insanely, and has virtually replaced text messaging altogether.

http://www.facebook.com/jessiethe3rd Jessie Anderson

The problem with that argument is you are analyzing developing countries. The issue/challenge in integrating WP7 and iPhones is almost null.
Brian

RIM just today cut their forcast for the upcoming (may) quarter, citing lower-than-expected shipments of smartphones. The stock is down 10% in after hours trading. While I wouldn't exactly call that dying I wouldn't call it doing well either.

efjay

Stop dreaming and wishful thinking, despite the best efforts of the tech world to talk up the death of RIM, they are not going anywhere. Its even more riduculous to think WP7 will suddenly be seen as the logical choice for enterprises just because MS adds a few api's and Office 365.

Where is this huge assumption that businesses will suddenly think Microsoft is the solution for them coming from when they have the choice of other more mature platforms? With 3rd party options available to manage all smartphone platforms WP7 in its immature state will probably be the last choice for a business concerned with deploying a stable, mature platform for its workforce.

http://wmpoweruser.com wmpoweruser

Free-falling market share does not lie. The only question is where will it stop.

Brian

Same can be said for Nokia's smartphone market – how small will it be by the time they start shipping WP7 phones?

gtorino

"RIM has also been seeing market share losses in USA, while Windows Phone 7 has been seeing gains"

Get you facts straight! RIM's been losing, but so is Windows Phone 7.

Nielsen US market share:
Windows Mobile – October 2010:
14% http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/up…

Windows Mobile/Windows Phone 7 – March 2011:
10% http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/up…

WP7 will continue to decline until Mango comes out. Those Nielsen numbers indicate consumer interest is waning. RIM will probably lose market share faster than WP7 in the US, but they'll thrive in developing countries where cheap phones are the rage and free instant messaging is the killer app….
Guest

RIM will be around. Blogs have been trying to talk down RIM since they found that the iPhone wasn't naturally taking them down. They are a tough company that isnt just going to go away to placate some other platforms fans lust to get rid of a competitor.

Microsoft was in the same boat not to long ago, and all of those people are eating their words today.
gtorino

Good point. My bad.
ejlee2006

<DIV class=idc-message id=idc-comment-msg-div-146887102><A class=idc-close title="Click to Close Message" href="javascript: IDC.ui.close_message(146887102)">Close Message
Comment posted.
<A class=idc-share-facebook style="TEXT-DECORATION: none" onclick=IDC.ui.fb_wrapper(146887102) href="javascript: void(null)">Share on Facebook or <A href="javascript: IDC.ui.close_message(146887102)">Close Messagewhat???? Hell noh, let berry invent themselves, the more phones out there the better, remember the rumors about Dell dropping there blackberries????
But the most anticipated windowS phone sucks, now they all went back to blackberries!!!??? That's why 4th place is not a bad position, they still have a large fan base all over the world, rim should make a phone with a 4 inch screen, and new processors,the business world and the entertainment world is now in each and every phone, they have to real invent.
Bernard Angustia

When further asked about WebOS, the response was crickets chirping.
Brian

Actually I think it was Nielsen who just reported that consumer interest for WP7 has dropped in their latest survey.
Dave

The interesting thing is that RIM has had record growth and earnings for the last two quarters – they just get dwarfed by the other players.
willdoors

this is so wrong.. some of u guys are flying in imaginary clouds LOL
RIM will not loose anything….. I love my WP7 but Blackberry is something different…. and if I didn't buy my focus, I would have that one, I only bought my WP7 cause I love Microsoft and cause I like it that they did a UI so new and fresh!
the truth is that there huge amount of people using Blackberry, more and more! …. just look around and you'll see everybody has an iphone or a blackberry…. just a few have android…. and u rarely will see someone with a WP7 ( i want it to succeed that's why I have it, knowing before hand it can't compete even with iphone right now,
no socket, no front camera, poor sound quality etc)
don't believe in polls telling wp7 is gaining over any other…. or that BB is loosing and also android the number one…. that's all lies! ….. right now iphone and blackberry are both the number one!
nuff said
Excelsior
Brian

RIM just chopped its forecast for the upcoming quarter, based on lower than expected smartphone shipments – the stock took a deep tumble in after hours trading. You appear to be the one who is imagining things.