Comscore: Windows Phone US installed base losses continue to slow

May 6, 2011 | By Surur

20110506comscore

Comscore have released their monthly US carrier subscriber numbers today and in line with our prediction from last month, Microsoft’s share of the US phone owner installed base has continued to drop, but at an increasingly slow pace.

While 0.2% less US subscribers owned Windows Phones (a combination of Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile), as can be seen in the table below the trend is clearly toward increasingly slow losses as Windows Phone 7 ramps up and replaces the ever dwindling Windows Mobile installed base.

Microsoft	Nov-10	Dec-10	Jan-11	Feb-11	Mar-11
US installed base	9	8.4	8	7.7	7.5
Percent loss	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.2

Looking at the numbers, things should start turning around in the May numbers, and Windows Phone 7 should start gaining share in June 2011.

RIM	Nov-10	Dec-10	Jan-11	Feb-11	Mar-11
US installed base	33.5	31.6	30.4	28.9	27.1
Percent loss	2.3	1.9	1.2	1.5	1.8

The news is not as good for RIM, which appears to be accelerating the losses in their installed base, as US subscribers get rid of their crackberries even faster than Windows Mobile users.

Of note is that on this occasion it is not just us that is noticing the trend, with SeattlePI also mentioning things looking up for Microsoft in mobile.

About Surur

Site Admin and Windows Phone enthusiast, he has been using Windows Mobile devices since before they were called PocketPC’s. He is currently sporting a HTC 7 Trophy.

Tagged comscore, market share, sales, usa, windows phone 7

Bnlf

good news.

Anonymous

i still dont understand how someone could buy a laggy android phone, with integration with anything, isntead of windows phone 7.

android is fragmented, ugly, and looks like a palm pilot with widgets forced in.

http://www.facebook.com/wixostrix WixosTrix

Because it has an abundance of features and has well establish brands. Everyone thinks an Android phone is a Droid. People want Droids, they’re “cool”. Windows is not “cool”. If Microsoft could put together some “cool” campaigns showcasing Xbox and Zune, and not just the hipster ones they currently have for Zune, then people will start to notice them more.

AnonGuy

Wp7 is anemic right now. Its behind any help advertising can provide. Its a beta level ostensibly and mangos is a whole new os version. Basically not north buying right now and I have an hd7. Its rwtty close to useless in its current state…

http://www.facebook.com/wixostrix WixosTrix

That is your opinion and seeing as you’re commenting on this site you are probably pretty tech savy, ie not the target consumer of Windows Phone. Don’t get me wrong I’m sure Microsoft expects it tech fan base to jump on board, but they are really targeting WP7 to the consumers who don’t currently have smart phones.

For those people the OS is great in its current state. Not being able to customize ringtones or sending video MMS is annoying but they’re hardly deciding factors. The features it has, the smoothness and consisitancy of the UI, and it’s ease of use outweighs most of it’s missing features. Which, are a guareentee to come with future updates, unlike with one of the other platforms out there.

http://chmun77.myopenid.com/ SugarCracker

Have you tried Samsung Galaxy S II? Lag? Is already gone for Android. The browsing experience is on par with iPhone now. And with Flash. And the samsung widgets are so pretty.

Android has most of the apps from iPhone. At the very least, it support IM and post notifications. I know WP7 support push notifications too, but there are practically no apps supporting that now. Not even much app making full use of the live tiles. But Android has functional widgets for almost every app.

Until Mango is release for WP7, I do not see how WP7 has an advantage over Android. Furthermore, when is the confirmed date for Mango? Will it be delaying like NoDo again? Will operators be playing games again when comes to phones updates? Why can’t MS release Mango in phases instead of 1 big update? Everything is unknown.

BING services. It is so crippled as compared to Google Maps outside USA. In Asia, the BING map does not even provide as much information compared to Google Map. Not to mentioned that it does not even support Asian languages. So, we have to wait for Mango again? Do you think consumers out there will bother to wait? Since Android already has most of the stuffs, why wait especially there is are top phones like LG 2X and SGS 2?

Anonymous

WP7 in its current state is much more than a beta. Actually it is very functional. Coming from a Tilt2, running the most powerful OS of it’s time, sure I miss a few things. But the silky smoothness of WP far outweighs anything that I may have to wait a few more months for.

There are a good number of apps that utilize push and live tiles. I have tried at least 25 live tile apps and currently have 12 running on my phone. They all work great and provide real information. The current WM Messenger app does support push notification, and it works.

While I understand your Bing map concerns outside the US, there are several new apps in Marketplace that utilize Google maps. And that should suffice until Mango comes along with integrated Bing/Ovi maps. Honestly for me, maps are only one small part of any OS selection decision.

At the end of the day, everyone has their own reason for choosing a phone. But I have no issues recommending WP7 to most any user.

GP007

I hope this turns out like you expect, and then just in time for the next wave of phones with Mango we can really see WP move.

Anonymous

One problem is that Nokia’s numbers are falling much faster than RIM, but the end of the year they will be 2nd or 3rd in smart phone volume.

Anonymous

Um, percent loss is:

%loss = ((start – end) / start) * 100

and is more meaningful than point change, so WM7′s numbers are:

Nov -> Dec -6.67%
Dec – > Jan -4.76%
Jan -> Feb -3.75%
Feb -> Mar -2.60%

RIM’s numbers are:

Nov -> Dec -5.67%
Dec – > Jan -3.80%
Jan -> Feb -4.93%
Feb -> Mar -6.23%

Still good news for WM7, but not as rosy as the incorrect values in the article and a bit more mixed with respect to RIM.

Anonymous

The percentage loss is not the loss you calculated, but the percentage loss of the installed base i.e 0.2% less of the installed base are using Windows phones feb to march. I think that is the more meaningful number.

In terms of your numbers, it does look bad for RIM, losing 4-6% of their subscribers every month. Presumably you can only tolerate 20 of those before there is nothing left at all.

Anonymous

Percentage loss is useful because it allows you to more directly compare systems with very different market shares. Yes the news is bad for RIM and improving for WP7, but relative to their respective market shares the performance of both is closer than what the absolute numbers would indicate.

Just Visiting

More phones, more carriers please!
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000287698556 Mikhail Yugov

I don’t understand why Comcore cannot count smartphone subscribers share separately for WP7 and WM6, therefore I can’t say this is good news or bad.

Anonymous

it’s good news

Anonymous

Current numbers don’t really matter. This is why, WP7 will not come into it’s own until it has mango. When WP7 becomes WP7.5 This OS and the devices that will be coming out with WP7.5 that is when we will start to see numbers climbing up. Lets talk numbers 12 months from now. because they will be very different than what we see now.
http://profiles.google.com/paragon99 Dave Evans

I’m not trolloing here…….but, after several months in the market WP7 can’t even keep up to the small amount of Windows Mobile users who are still left and defecting. I’m not sure I can see that as a positive thing, even if it is slowing.

Microsoft has a lot of work to do, and it all seems to be resting on Mango and Nokia….that’s a lot of eggs in one basket. I sure hope it works!

Dave
Fenley

The numbers are still not good.

The numbers will only be good when they are going up, rather than slowing the rate of fall.

I can’t see it improving near term. The platform needs new handsets to keep rolling in to bring the numbers up. The only near-term handset is the HTC HD7S. Nokia WP7 handsets won’t be here until 2012, and much later for Nokia to get fully ramped up.

Microsoft really needs to do a lot more now to stem the bleeding.

Tom

Keep in mind that all this happened while Windows Phone was only available on T-Mobile and AT&T. This is less than half the addressable market.

0.2 percentage points on all four carriers is already close to breakeven on the GSM carriers.
Tom

Keep in mind that all this happened while Windows Phone was only available on T-Mobile and AT&T. This is less than half the addressable market.

0.2 percentage points on all four carriers is already close to breakeven on the GSM carriers.