Digitimes: Windows Phone 7 market share to grow to 5% in Q4 2011

http://twitter.com/SilverRubicon SilverRubicon

What happened to the analysts that were predicting WP7 would rule the world in 2012? I’m guessing these aren’t the same folks.

Anonymous

If its 5% in Q4 2011 and 10% in Q4 2012 then I don’t think anyone would worry at all.

http://twitter.com/SilverRubicon SilverRubicon

Any positive growth will be a huge plus. I just remember the charts that showed WP7 surpassing iPhone (or Android, forget which) in 2012. The charts had Paul Thurrott all in a tizzy while I thought they were optimistic at best.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ZWIQU6F5MNQWGAIOKNHSCSJFDE Brian

Meh, Nokia’s smartphone market share will probably be barely above 10% 3Q11 given the drop it had in 2Q11 and the fact there were no significant new products to change their trajectory. If, and this is a really huge if, they can convert 10% of their delivered smartphones in 4Q11 to WP7 handsets that’s just 1% of worldwide share (and I think these estimates are generous). With things like Sprint taking a $20 billion dollar stake in iPhone it’s only going to get harder to get carrier recognition.

Anonymous

Unfortunately, I have to agree with this assessment.

In order for them to reach 5%, Nokia who are down to somewhere near 10% would have to have 40-50% of their remaining users all up for an upgrade or buy a new device in the next 3 months and 100% of them choose Windows Phone. Given that they are only launching in a few European countries, along with news like O2 not selling their phones, I think this a totally unrealistic forecast.

I can see Windows Phone making it to number two in a couple of years, and perhaps number one, given another year or two on top of that. Realistically WP needs this time to build.
Anonymous

Brian with another bleak WP7 forecast, I’m shocked I tell you!
I think people should wait till they see the Nokia World announcements on the 26th before they make sweeping judgements on their WP7 sales. As the recent NPD survey stated, “Eleven percent of those planning to purchase a smartphone said they are most interested in Windows Phone 7. If they follow through, that could result in a jump in Windows Phone 7′s market share.” The great reviews for Mango by the tech press are just the start of Windows Phone rise in sales. Metro will be on your Xbox 360 in November and your Windows 8 PC and tablet in the summer. Once people use metro devices, the majority won’t want anything else.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ZWIQU6F5MNQWGAIOKNHSCSJFDE Brian

Care to (try) and explain what’s wrong with my numbers? Feel good about the NPD survey all you want, the numbers just don’t seem to be there in the short term. The big hope in just about all of these forecasts was Nokia, but now it appears that Nokia is going to need time to dig themselves out of a very big hole.

Anonymous

Digitimes is taking into account global sales from all OEMs (Samsung/HTC/ZTE/Fujitsu/Acer) not just Nokia. The Asian market is just opening up with Mango language support. 5% is certainly possible. Your Q3 projections for Nokia are just assumptions. RBC raised outlook on Nokia Q3, so nothing is written in stone.

http://kickass77.myopenid.com/ Deejavu

Ya… Carry on guessing. I bet only time will tell, especially by the end of this year.
http://twitter.com/digthenoise Dig The Noise

After Apple’s showing today, I would say 5% or more is possible.

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