IDC now Predicts 11.4% Smartphone Market Share For Windows Phone In 2016

Top Smartphone Operating Systems, Forecast Market Share and CAGR, 2012–2016                   

Smartphone OS

2012 Market Share

2016 Market Share

CAGR 2012 – 2016 (%)

Android

68.3%

63.8%

16.3%

iOS

18.8%

19.1%

18.8%

BlackBerry OS

4.7%

4.1%

14.6%

Windows Phone

2.6%

11.4%

71.3%

Linux

2.0%

1.5%

10.5%

Others

3.6%

0.1%

-100.0%

Total

100.0%

100.0%

18.3%

IDC today released its Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker report with predictions for 2016. OEMs will ship more than 1.7 billion mobile phones this year. In Q4 2012, 224.5 million units of smartphones are expected to be sold. Also they predicted that Windows Phone will hold 11.4% market share in smartphones in 2016. IDC commented the following on Windows Phone future,

Windows Phone will battle with BlackBerry for the number three spot in 2013, but will gain further clarity in the years that follow. Windows Phone will build on the progress it made in 2012, with Nokia establishing its presence and HTC solidly jumping back into the race. Moreover, contributions by Samsung, ZTE, and Huawei will help grow its footprint. With more vendors releasing more devices aimed at multiple segments, sales associates will be better positioned to tell a compelling Windows Phone story and to explain the value of Windows Phone’s differentiated experience compared to market leaders Android and iOS.

The number represents a significant drop from earlier projections by the same company, in which they predicted 20.3% Windows Phone market share in 2015, and for Windows Phone to overtake iOS.

Clearly the IDC has lost confidence ins the slow-starting Windows Phone OS. I do believe however that Windows Phone will benefit from a snow-ball effect, much like Android, where market share above 10% will increase the credibility of the OS to the degree that significantly higher market shares will also be possible.

What do our readers think?  Did Windows Phone lose it’s chance to challenge the iPhone in Market Share? Let us know below.

Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker