IDC sees slow Windows Phone market share growth over the next 4 years

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After years of being rather optimistic about the future of Windows Phone the IDC has trimmed their forecast for Windows Phone growth.

The market research company now estimates 43.3 million Windows Phones will be sold in 2014, for a market share of 3.5%, increasing to 115.3 million in 2018, or 6.4% market share.

Conversely Android is expected to lose 2.6% market share, while iOS will lost 1.1% market share over the same period.

Blackberry will drop from 0.8 to 0.3% market share, according to their predictions.

They expect most of the growth to take place in low-cost markets like India, Indonesia, and Russia, and the average selling price of handsets to drop from, $335 in 2013 to $267 in 2018.

"Until recently, low cost has equalled poor quality in the smartphone space,” said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Given the competition at the high end, vendors like Motorola are trying to skate to where the puck is going by offering extremely affordable devices like the Moto E, which offer a ‘good enough’ experience that will suit the needs of many. This goes to show that components that were used 2-3 years back in high-end smartphones are still sufficient in many aspects, and ultimately will allow vendors to come to the table with viable low-cost solutions."

On Windows Phone they said:


Windows Phone – Windows Phone continues to slowly build its global footprint, and growth is expected to outpace the market throughout the forecast period. In 2014, volumes are expected to grow 29.5% over 2013, reaching 43.3 million shipments. This momentum is expected to continue into 2015, reaching 65.9 million units, continuing on to 115.3 million in 2018. It is somewhat unclear what Microsoft has in store for its recent acquisition of Nokia, but an additional positive is the number of new OEM partners recently announced. At Microsoft’s Build conference this year, the company announced a number of key features that had been visibly absent from the platform in the past. If more OEMs get behind the platform, and device portfolios continue to scale the cost spectrum, Windows Phone can continue to gain momentum.

Do our readers think the IDC’s predictions carry any weight at all in this rapidly changing market? Let us know below.



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Site Admin and Windows Phone enthusiast, he has been using Windows Mobile devices since before they were called PocketPC’s. He is currently sporting a Nokia Lumia 920.