iSuppli – Windows Mobile on the up

October 1, 2009 | By Surur

I have not been as busy with Windows Mobile news since Mobile World Congress earlier this year, and to me that says something about the health of Windows Mobile.

it seems iSuppli agrees, saying despite current troubles with the OS, they expect the operating system to be resurgent next year, with pretty steep growth expected.

iSuppli predicts the OS will go from 20 million sales in 2008 to 67.9 million in 2013, tripling in use and reclaiming the second spot after Symbian.

“Windows Mobile is facing a host of challenges, including rising competition from free alternatives like Symbian and Android, the loss of some key licensees and some shortcomings in its user interface,” said Tina Teng, senior wireless communications analyst for iSuppli. “However, Windows Mobile holds some major cards that will allow it to remain a competitive player in the market.”

It Takes a Smart Phone Village
The ace card in Windows Mobile’s hand is ownership of a complete infrastructure essential for the success of a smart-phone operating system.

“The battle over smart-phone software has spread beyond the operating systems,” Teng observed. “To win in today’s environment, a company needs not only an operating system but also device support, an application store, a broad portfolio of applications and support from the developer community. While Windows Mobile is losing some share to competitors in 2009, most of the alternatives cannot match Microsoft’s complete suite of offerings.”

For example, rather than just selling a barebones operating system, Microsoft offers a complete set of services that can assist clients in their customization and software integration efforts. In contrast, OEMs wanting to customize the Symbian and Android operating systems by modifying the user interface or widgets must invest in add-on software.

Licensee Losses
’Microsoft’s recent loss of two licensees—Palm and Motorola—has been cited as a sign of Windows Mobile’s weakness. However, these losses may not be as significant as they might appear.

“Palm never used Microsoft for all of its smart-phone operating system needs, so it never represented a large amount of business for the company,” Teng said. “Furthermore, it was known that Palm was working on its own smart-phone operating system for the Pre. As for Motorola, the company’s shipments and market share in the mobile handset business have been declining in recent years, making it a less significant player.”

Meanwhile, Windows Mobile recently gained another key licensee: LG, the world’s No-3 mobile-phone OEM. LG has pledged to produce 50 Windows Mobile handset models. Even after the loss of Palm and Motorola, Windows Mobile still boasts the largest number of OEM licensees among all smart-phone operating systems, at 14. Symbian is in second place, at 10.

“In terms of licensees, Windows Mobile remains in a very strong position in the smart-phone operating system market,” Teng said.

The Bottom Line
Perhaps the most glaring obstacles faced by Windows Mobile reside in its own shortcomings. “The Windows Mobile user interface looks poor compared to some of its slicker competitors—particularly Google’s Android and Apple’s iPhone operating system,” Teng noted. “The rigid folder system structure of Windows Mobile can be challenging for users. In addition, Microsoft didn’t update the user interface of Windows Mobile quickly enough, and it was slow to market with the dashboard look.”

Furthermore, the current version of Windows Mobile doesn’t support capacitive touch-screen technology, like the multi-touch screen used in the iPhone. “This represents a major barrier for smart-phone OEMs that would like to produce innovative phones,” Teng said.

Despite the drawbacks, Microsoft is expected to provide a remedy shortly. “Microsoft in 2010 will introduce an updated version of its operating system, Windows Mobile 7, which is expected to sport an enhanced user interface and browser as well as multi-touch control,” Teng predicted. “This will make it much more competitive with the alternatives on the market.”

About Surur

Site Admin and Windows Phone enthusiast, he has been using Windows Mobile devices since before they were called PocketPC’s. He is currently sporting a HTC 7 Trophy.

Tagged sales, windows mobile

Kenneth

As a former WinMo fanboy, I'm shocked by the level of bullishness in this article and am frankly incredibly suspect of it's assertions. I'd love to think that WinMo will be able to turn things around….unfortunately Microsoft has proven time and time again it's inability in this regard and the smartphone space is turning very quickly out of their favor. I hope that I'm proven wrong.
the undude

this is a rosy forecast. the competition is not standing still. will winP 7 in 2010 be better than the iphone 4.0? will android phone be more prevalent then too? and nokia will be offering new touch screen devices too then.

if winP 7 were out today it would be an even field.

the BIG unknown is how well MS implements all the cloud services with WinP – and if consumers will care enough for them to wand a winP device.

i fear that MS will have created the technical vision that others will render better for enduser needs when the enduser market better understands these clpud services in a few years from now.

we’ll see.
Anoyomouse

Hmm. Well I'd not put too much faith in iSuppli. Mind you, MS may well come out on top, and I certainly hope they do. Look at the Zune, and the most recent and upcoming devices, MS may have something nice in store. On the other hand, look at the shipment of fail that is 6.5 – yes it is quite a bit better than 6.1, but remains lacking – and the WM appstore…

The appstore is a horrid contraption. Developer side there have been so many issues, but it seems slowly they are being cleared up. But today the copy protection scheme (which is not a copy protection scheme, but a document unable to convince even the most higher-up with absolutely no technical knowledge that it is sufficient) was published, and then suddenly all hope was lost.

It seems the past 12 months or so, while the OEMs are really trying to make things work, MS mobile division decisions are being made by interns or something. It's all pretty half-assed, if you want my opinion. It's not the tech per sé really, it's the decisions being made.

Will WM survive? I definitely hope so, and WM7 has a lot of promiss. But it's little, and late, and MS really needs to get their shit together.
NuShrike

6.5 and 1 year of development as a FAIL flag of the actual movement, and distinctly avoiding any reference to the iPhone pretty much dominating all deployment (who HASN'T been surrounded by iPhones?) makes this article nothing but PR fluff.