Nokia already nearly 50% of Second Generation Windows Phone market share

January 23, 2012 | By Surur

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overalloemshare Using data available from OccasionalGamer’s game collection, who has more than 1 million game installs, it is possible to estimate the relative share of the various Windows Phone 7 OEMs, and as can be reasonably expected with Nokia’s arrival on the scene , the blue company is rapidly taking over the Windows Phone 7 market.

Even at this early stage the company already has 45% of the second generation handset market, with most of that being the Nokia Lumia 800 and some the more recently introduced Nokia Lumia 710.

The next biggest OEM is HTC, with 40% of the market. This is still large, but down from 55% for the overall market. The midrange handset, the HTC Radar, is however doing particularly well for the company, and has seen wide distribution in Europe and also on T-Mobile USA.

Brining up the rear is Samsung, who’s G2 market share is also dramatically down, from 28% overall to only 12% in the second generation devices. According to Occasional Gamer’s data Samsung’s numbers are dominated by the Samsung Omnia W/Focus Flash, which is not doing as well as the HTC Radar. Samsung lacks a real high-end device for the non-US market which may have hurt sales overall.

The last few percentages are taken up by the Fijutsu IS12T at 3%, which is a decent showing and more than the Samsung Focus S for example, and a smattering of new devices such as the ZTE Tania and Acer Allegro, which are still to chart in significant numbers.

It is of note that LG had a significant piece of the pie overall before, with 12% of the market, but is still to release a second generation handset.

Overall however I think the biggest news is how rapidly Nokia has been able to dominate the Windows Phone 7 market, and I suspect if market acceptance for Windows Phone 7 increases it may be because it becomes strongly associated with Nokia, which may mean this percentage could easily increase to 60-70% or more, and which could see other OEMs exit due to this.

How would our readers feel about a Windows Phone 7 market dominated by Nokia devices? Let us know below.

About Surur

Site Admin and Windows Phone enthusiast, he has been using Windows Mobile devices since before they were called PocketPC’s. He is currently sporting a HTC 7 Trophy.

Tagged market share, nokia, windows phone 7.5

http://fxfp.com/ Alex F.

I really hope that at least HTC will stay on (not so much Samsung after they repeatedly screwed Omnia 7 and Focus users) – having only one huge OEM won’t be good for the platform and phone choice.

Anonymous

Both HTC & Samsung will be staying on, you can bet on it. My guess is with Apollo, and its dual core & supposed HD resolution support, they will start bringing more desirable Windows Phones to market.

rsgx

I’m hoping they will bring quad-core support too, so they remain up-to-date in terms of competition.

Anonymous

I imagine that Apollo may be designed a little more ‘future friendly’ for OEMs, with multi-core capabilities, depending on how MS plans on unifying Windows 8/WP down the road. It’s not entirely clear yet, but it would be their best bet… wasn’t there a fairly solid rumour of Tegra support for Apollo, or was that just Windows 8?

rsgx

I only read that about Win8, but who knows at this point.

Maybe MWC next month will reveal some more.

Anonymous

Once consumer acceptance of Windows Phone rises (because of Nokia brand value), other OEMs will embrace the platform and ride on Nokia’s success. Not the other way round.

Anonymous

Yes. Shame that they – HTC/Samsung – never pulled their weight with WP; Nokia is the only oem bringing shine to the WP platform with their brilliant and constant marketing, not to mention the most aesthetically pleasing devices on the market! But, even though the lazy HTC/Samsung will benefit, to some degree due to Nokia, Nokia will win big and have the largest marketshare.

I, to this day, have never been impressed with HTC or Samsungs offerings, and their efforts are pathetic; they will NEVER get my money. And to this day, I still do not have a WP device, but I will definitely be giving my money to Nokia, solely, for as long as they make WP devices. When, and if, Nokia no longer makes WP devices, is when I will no longer use WP. Yeah, I said it!

http://www.currentlybreathing.net Ram Uppugunduri

But I think we should be little easy on HTC, because they are realizing now how big mistake they did by ditching Microsoft and fell for Google’s shark bait AKA OHA. Thats why they have released Titan, Radar 4G and announced Titan II. I hope that momentum continues. Samsung is still enjoying the Android at the expense of other OEMs but sooner or later they too will relaize once Googorola passes through both EU and FTC.

Tessa

HTC has grown enormously thanks to Android phone sales, while relying solely on Windows phones through the WM/WP transition period might have killed the company. That’s the kind of “mistake” most companies would be happy to make. But I don’t think that there’s much question that it makes sense for them to support both OSs and hedge their bets — that’s just good business.

http://www.currentlybreathing.net Ram Uppugunduri

Well for that matter I don’t say that one has to sabotize their survival, but you don’t have to be the first one to jump the ship as soon as the shark bait is announced. Remember HTC was the first one to join OHA.

http://profile.yahoo.com/RUSGDEF42VXH4DJI3S4OAF47LY AbHi

Nice… Nokia FTW..
Anonymous

Weren’t there an agreement with Samsung and HTC after the Android licensing deals to continue to make Windows Phone models? I know Samsung for sure. I don’t see them dropping out.
Anonymous

It would be nice if Dell and HP jump on board for Apollo
Anonymous

At this point, Nokia and HTC are the two that really seem to be making an effort to differentiate. Nokia on industrial design and marketing, and HTC hitting both down market and high end homers with the the Radar and Titan/Titan II.

Samsung’s second gen were average, and LG is a no-show, which is a disappointment. I happen to like my Optimus 7 but they lost a lot of visibility by not getting a US carrier for that device, even though it was the best reviewed launch device by Engadget.

I’m not sure they’ll be bringing anything to the table when Apollo launches, which is roughly when I can get a good deal on an upgrade. There’s still some room for the ‘other’ OEMs (ZTE/Acer/Fuji) to make an impact if they can get devices out there.

There needs to be at least two OEMs though. Not sure if Nokia alone would be the best strategy going forward, unless MS managed to acquire them outright and do a more Apple-like approach.
Anonymous

The hope remain with Nokia and HTC
http://twitter.com/Heron_Kusanagi Heron Lim Shi Shun

Let’s see…when Nokia became successful, Symbian was formed, and people came in. It was only because of the 1st signs of trouble with the iOS, did the masses jump to Android.

So…Nokia is poised to do the same thing, only this time, they have less control over the OS. Might not be a bad thing.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Jon-Nehring/100001928079717 Jon Nehring

The concerns I have, looking at these graphs is that if Nokia has 45% of the 2nd gen. market and 4% of the total market, then:

1) The 2nd gen market so far is only 8.9% of all Windows Phones
2) Nokia hasn’t been selling a lot of phones (yet), given the total number of Windows Phones out there

I guess we’ll know in a few days when they release some numbers with their quarterly report…at least it’s my understanding they will do that. Ultimately, I think they will do well and this is, after all, data from just one place. It’s encouraging that the number of WP apps has hit 60K…hopefully better quality on average than Android or iOS offerings.

Anonymous

taking your numbers, and adding analyst estimates that Nokia has shipped 1.3M phones, that would mean 32.5M Windows Phones have been sold to date (2.8M of which are 2nd gen phones). These numbers are based on a lot of assumptions (that analyst estimates for Nokia shipments are right; that counting game downloads from OccasionalGamer is a good measure of installed base, and that the game download count accurately reflects unique phones).

http://www.facebook.com/people/Jon-Nehring/100001928079717 Jon Nehring

Well, and those are all just assumptions. It is early days for Nokia+WP so I shouldn’t be that concerned. As for 2nd-gen Windows Phones, presumably that means phones that came with Mango installed. What really is the difference, when just about every Windows Phone has (or can be) updated to Mango? It’s not like the fragmentation in the Android world. Granted, these new phones have more processing power and features, e.g. gyroscope, that the Focus lacks, but it has run quite well with 7.5. I want those things but haven’t missed them much.

So one way of looking at it is that there are 30M+ Windows Phones out there that are all almost entirely on par with each other. If I had to write apps for Android, I’d be hating the fragmentation as well as the expectation that everything be free of charge.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HOKQSWPW34HSO7G6IUTT74VVGQ Manu Narayan

I really don’t think there are 30M WP handsets out there. If there were, Microsoft would have talked this up during their earnings call.

Anonymous

There are reports that Microsoft sold ~1.7M iPhones in Q3 of 2011. So, I’m guessing that 30M number is probably closer to the number of phones shipped and not the count actually sold.

Anonymous

If they can do the same as they did with Symbian, i’m all for it. Symbian was owned by the top 4 big manufacturers in 2002-2008 before Nokia dominated the field with it’s services and hardware in a way that it bought Ericsson’s, Siemens, Samsung, LG etc share out of it and got the whole thing for itself.

This time Nokia “probably” isn’t going to buy MS out of it if it all goes great, and that might just be a good thing that they wont have possibility for that.
Nokia’s strenght is in the industrial design, mass producing countless of devices, unparallelled patent portfolio on phones making it hard to sue and service portfolio with the likes of Navteq that’s world second largest mapping company.
Not in the software, while MeeGo/N9 might have been cool.
Anonymous

Does this have any implications for total number of phones sold? If nokia sold an estimated 1.3 million windows phones last year market yet only represents about 4% of downloads. My guess is it shows a lower adoption of these games on new devices but one can only dream. . . .
http://twitter.com/efjay01 Ef Jay

No device is perfect but I cant see myself willingly buying anything other than a Nokia WP7 device from now on, nothing from HTC, Samsung or anyone else is remotely interesting to me. Only way I would not buy a Nokia would be if I’m forced to due to T-Mobile US not carrying one (the 710 is low end and doesnt count) and no unlocked AWS device available. I’m all for Nokia being the standard bearer for WP7.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HOKQSWPW34HSO7G6IUTT74VVGQ Manu Narayan

That is not an encouraging sign. With recent estimates of Nokia having moved 1.1M windows phones in Q4, that would imply only 2.2M ’2nd gen’ phones have been moved.
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_5ZUD73FFTF3JFLR64AD62R7Q6I Eric

I just hope this will encourage HTC to make so more efforts for WP7.

Actually I still like HTC (their devices have really something special, I can’t explain).
Unfortunately HTC have been terribly lazy these last 2 years.

The Titan I and II are average. Especially the 16GB limitation cannot be explained (the Sensation XL promoted as a “media” phone suffers the same limitation, and does not even support FLAC (!))

Wake up HTC !!! Bring better batteries + expandable storage on Windows Phone (or 32 gb internal storage)

And bring Innovation!
Anonymous

I think what’s more interesting is that Toshiba/Fujitsu have 3% of the market. Waterproof Windows Phone FTW! =)
Anonymous

The Nokia/Microsoft partnership is a great match and brilliant. It will help both companies immensely. From what I’ve seen so far from Nokia, I don’t care if the only phones available in the future with Windows Phone are Nokia. I’ll probably buy Nokia anyway.
http://www.currentlybreathing.net Ram Uppugunduri

I think you are batting wrongly here. These numbers are interpreted total number of downloads of games from Occassional Gamer and they have been extrapolated to get the % of adoption rate and not actual devices channeled and sold to the end consumer.
Anonymous

Now we know the market numbers of Windows Phone 7.
1. Nokia shipped 1.3 million Windows Phones(http://www.informationweek.com/news/mobility/smart_phones/232500308)

2. Nokia has 45% share in Windows Phones (This article says so)

So total number of Windows Phones sold = ~2.6 million?

Please feel free to correct me

Anonymous

Estimated to have shipped, since no one but Nokia knows the actual numbers. And they usually aren’t too fond of releasing that info.

Anonymous

The Current (and possibly future, [out to one year]) leaders of WP7 are HTC and Nokia, Samsung is now at the rear and falling behind (possibly due to the multiple Android Models it’s constantly iterating! My thoughts are that they think they’ll be able to make it up (and hop in anytime) later in the year once Window 8 comes out.
But if they leave it too long and Nokia Volume kicks in, then they’ll be in the position that they’ve placed other OEM’s in the Android market!

The Way I see it:

Nokia needs WP7 for its High-end phones, volume and future sales.

HTC needs to build up WP7 as a fallback in-case they continue to lose Android Judgements and market share.

Samsung, as above, is currently on an All-Cream High, and is already planning Windows 8 domination too, leaving the lesser WP7 share to others for now.

Other smaller players have either bowed out (Dell, LG) or come aboard (Acer, ZTE, Toshiba).

Window Phone 7 will continue it’s upward trend despite hard competition from IOS6 and JuJu Beans (jellybeans, or whaterver! ), further bolstered by the continuing adoption of Metro (company-wide), and General release of Windows 8, which should not be underestimated in anyway!

Although there will only be a limited number of ARM tablets coming out in the next few months, the flood gates will be (literally) wide-open in terms of touchscreen Ultrabooks, Notebooks, Convertibles, and Atom/AMD tablets once Windows 8 Beta is released!
http://3DMee.com ShinyPixels

Watch HTC Marketshare decline quite rapidly if Nokia gets it together and releases all models everywhere (like they should).

WP7 is a pretty good experience but HTC’s handsets are sorely lacking lately and in some pretty bad need of a generation refresh (not to mention better attention to detail). HTC is still far behind in the quality (ie camera), battery and build finish.