Ovum predicts Nokia/Microsoft will redraw smartphone market, overtake iOS by 2016

March 25, 2011 | By Surur

ovumprediction

Analysts are increasingly positive about the future of Windows Phone 7, helped especially by the Nokia/Microsoft deal.

Ovum principal analyst Adam Leach said the partnership between Nokia and Microsoft has redrawn the smartphone market as Nokia transitions to Windows Phone as its primary smartphone platform.

"For Microsoft the deal provides a committed handset partner that has the potential to make Windows Phone a mainstream smartphone platform. The risk to Microsoft is that other handset makers may choose not to compete with Nokia and may turn their backs on Windows Phone," Mr. Leach said.

"We will see dramatic shifts in dominance for smartphone software platforms, with Android storming into the lead with 38.7% market share, compared to Apple iOS’ 19%, by 2016 in AP alone," he added.

He expects Windows Phone to hit 22.6% market share by 2016, with by BlackBerry OS hitting 9.2%.

The Ovum prediction echoes a similar one by IDC, which also saw Windows Phone 7 having a larger than 20% market share in 2015.

About Surur

Site Admin and Windows Phone enthusiast, he has been using Windows Mobile devices since before they were called PocketPC’s. He is currently sporting a HTC 7 Trophy.

Tagged analysts, markets share, windows phone 7

Larry

This assumes Android doesn't splinter into different phones that cannot run apps on other phones. Android with its different screen sizes, buttons and mods from each phone manufacturer and mobile company may produce a fractured product similar to the old Microsoft phones. Then the developers and owners could flock in larger numbers to WP7. Android is also setting itself up for large virus issues, not to mention patent court challenges. All may contribute to an eroding Android marketshare where the WP7 could be in a great position to dominate the market. This is going to be fun to watch.

AhTiong

Don't be too happy about WP7. Who knows when Nokia releases its WP7 phones, it will too have different screen sizes, buttons and others? Is already mentioned that Nokia will customize WP7, but to what degree is the concern.

5 years down the road… Who knows which OS will be the next contender? Nothing is for sure.

hwanger

AhThoing, you missed the point. Fragmentation means a dev can't target everyone potentially. Even if Nokia have different form factors, your code will still likely run on all WP7 devices.

Of course nothing is for sure, these are analyst prediction. The clue is in the name.
Larry makes a good point. The open nature of Android could well turn out to be its Achilles heel.
Try this, go read a book on coding for WP7, then one on iOS. I know which one I think dev would likely flock to as Larry suggests.
http://twitter.com/Luisraul924 @Luisraul924

Nokia already confirmed they're not going to mess with the OS. they're gonna focus on hardware and services that run across the board including other OEM windows phones. As of now there are only two resolutions Microsoft allows and the smaller res. is the one Nokia wants to use for cheaper phones, so it'll only be two resolutions instead of around ten. I can easily see Android falling maybe not completely failing altogether but it could be bad with the whole lawsuit issue, open market causing viruses, fragmentation issues getting worse etc. it's plagued with issues. iOS is getting real old real fast and unless Apple changes it (doubtful) they too will start stagnating in the market. I can easily see windows phone on top, as it is, its great and its only gonna get better.

http://www.facebook.com/people/Jonathan-Alfred-Roberts/2052352 Jonathan Alfred-Roberts

Of course it is. It was a huge coup the key is keeping the other OEMs on board and luring more into the system. Also Microsoft should make a flagship phone just to show them how it's done.
alexd7777

Analytics from Ovum should visit windowsteamblog.com and read, what frustrated customer write about WP7 and its updates…

WP7 is Vista Number 2.

Luke Smith

But what followed Vista? A well received OS in Windows 7. WP7 may not be the winner, after all its v1, but WP8 has the potential to be

WP7Fan

And that'll be here, long before 2016

So yea, I think this prediction won't be too far off.

bobk

WP7 is faster and easier to use than other mobile devices. Calling it Vista 2 is ridiculous. The update mess is frustrating, but hopefully MS will get its act together and release Mango on time.

alexd7777

that is why i'm calling it Vista 2. MS don't like this baby (same with Vista). I'm pretty sure we'll see in one year the new shining WP8 whithout these problems with any updates and with many more features. MS will release new updates quarterly without waiting for any approvals.

Unfortunately, current WP7 devices will not get any of these improvments. Well, yearly adopters are always early adopters.

http://www.facebook.com/wixostrix Edwin Michael Rodriguez-Duplesis

The majority of those people are a probably geeks who know so much it's easy to criticize. Regular people don't know any better and the majority of them love their phones. It's not about what it doesn't do, but about what it does. Many features aren't available on other phones and they are rather "cool". So happy customers, happy developers > nagging early adopting geeks.

Rico

The problem with predicting mobile is that even in "short" terms like five years, a lot can happen. In less than five years, Apple released a phone that changed the smartphone game completely, the Palm brand died, Google released a mobile OS, and Microsoft forged a major partnership with Nokia. These predictions can't possibly take into account these types of events.

AhTiong

I agree very much. Forget about 2016. What MS need to do is to pick up speeds with itself. Faster and better updates for WP7, or else we will not be seeing WP7 anymore before 2016.

Larry

Alxed7777, this is no Vista. The updates have become a bit frustrating but WP7 is a solid OS. You obviously do not own a WP7 and therefore really do not appreciate its truly excellent build, performance and ease of use. Something very lacking in the Android world. The Android is a difficult phone for the general public.

Events like at&t buying Tmobile. They don't want a duopoly of Apple and Google. Microsoft will do fine.
rsg

2016?

Nah, I think it will be a lot sooner than that – 2014.
Durishin

Or…the disaster of the NoDo update will be followed by No-ManGo, WP7 will be obsolete for lack of contemporary features and no-one will buy WP7 phones – regardless the manufacturer. The M$ deal could sink NOK once and for all.

I hope that doesn't happen.

We'll see.

http://www.facebook.com/wixostrix Edwin Michael Rodriguez-Duplesis

I doubt that would happen. The future is mobile and Microsoft isn't going to miss it. They may be late, but not too late. The smartphone market is nowhere near saturation so their is plenty of room to grow. This NoDo issue will probably never happen again. It's their first ever update (the pre-update) and issues like this are to be expected. Perhaps the way the responded and delt with it could have been better, but we don't know what's happening inside the walls of that company, how carriers and OEMs are responding to Microsoft, so on and so on. Once they figure this out, the update process should be a lot smoother. Plus Mango is expected until the Fall so I doubt this incident is going to delay it much if at all.
http://www.facebook.com/patrickvand Patrick Van

you're so right i don't why people are giving you thumbs down… why are people so blind to the fact of whats really going on with Wp7. its nothing but lies, and broken promise. that's no way to win over the consumer especially when Windows Mobile left people hating anything Microsoft.

PeaceFroggerX

Predictions from sensible people >>> bloggers with attention defecit.

Fanboys are so bored of themselves and their TOYS they have nothing to do now but DEBATE. See console wars with "gamers" posting online but never playing their beloved console.

The irony is that by 2016 some of these lame and loud fanboys (and wp haters) might have switched to Android and back 2x in a fit of TODDLER RAGE ringing up thousands of dollars of profits to carriers. ROTFLMAO.
roach_779

Once every other handset on the shelf is a WP7, market share will pick up.

Limitation (cut & paste, multitasking, etc) with WP7 will all be forgotten in a year.

Updates will also become more smoother as MS learns from past experience. They know how, just look at their fragmented desk top market…they have better control with WP7.

Apps market will not catch up with iPhone or Android (pundits will use this against WP7), but most major apps will be available.

http://twitter.com/Luisraul924 @Luisraul924

You'd be surprised… Less than half a year on the market and already half the apps BlackBerry App World has… You never know is all I'm sayin…
rsg

Well said.

Add the unique features that MS will bring to WP7 such as Lync, Media Room and Office 365 (I know Lync will be on other platforms too, but the WP7 version will be better no doubt) and they have a winner on their hands.

Haters gonna hate, as usual.

http://www.facebook.com/patrickvand Patrick Van

thats BS no way will WP7 be in second, it'll probably be in 5th place behind RIM. MS is doing what they did with Windows Mobile not giving out updates till the new device come out with the updates first. That way most people will just buy the newer phone. 6mons to get copy and paste…. and still hundreds of standard features not done yet. You can't even backup your phone… but hey its coming right?
Christopher

Are they seriously called 'Ovum?'
John

I wouldn't be so optimistic, wp7 has too many features missing and their updates are too slow. You can check the list of missing features here: http://www.travelogie.com/blog/post/2011/03/20/Wi…

At the same time Microsoft is not rushing to improve and their updates are taking too long. I hope I'm wrong though, because I like interface (except app list and start screen) of wp7 OS and I hope it'll be a success. I'm not planning to buy wp7 devices until they'll open needed APIs (so that we could use such software as skype) and introduce copy & paste, multitasking, IE9 and better devices. Now, high end Android devices have much much better specs than wp7 devices.
downhillrider

great now I have to wait til 2016 to get my 1st update
Zeke

This is so full of FUD and fanboism to be anything reputable. Microsoft is late to the mobile world. With it's failure of updates breaking everything. I couldn't take WP7 serious if I really wanted to.

I rather own an Android phone then a WP7 that looks like it was designed by a 5 year old.
http://www.facebook.com/tom.warren Tom Warren

You got this totally wrong! The 19% figure is Asia Pacific only.