Prediction: Gartner will fail at their prediction

October 7, 2010 | By rush24

I must say that somebody must be making money by hedging their bets against Windows phone 7. The latest comes from Gartner Research who according to Information Week

Gartner predicts the release of Windows Phone 7 will help bump Microsoft’s share of the worldwide market from 4.7% in 2010 to 5.2% in 2011, but says the company’s share will ultimately decline to just 3.9% by 2014.

By then, Microsoft will badly trail virtually every other major mobile OS developer, according to Gartner. The firm predicts the Symbian OS will continue to lead the market in 2014, with a 30.2% stake, just barely ahead of Google’s Android. Gartner sees Android’s share ballooning to 29.6% by 2014, up from 17.7% in 2010 and just 3.9% in 2009.

We have already covered this madness by analysts but I’m just curious, what is their obsession with predicting doom for a product before it even launches and are they going to loose their jobs if they turn out to be wrong?

About Rush24

Rush24 loves everything Microsoft and is fascinated by the influence of technology in everyday life.

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Tagged prediction, windows phone 7, wp7

majg

I'm always skeptical when these folks on the eve of events. (WP7 Unveiling, holiday consumer spending like Kinect tech).

You almost get the feeling that, yeah… someone's making a ton of money making sure MS fails.
http://www.facebook.com/wooncherk Lam Woon Cherk

everyone likes to see Microsoft fail… haha… i just dunno why… hehe…
mark

Gartner is often negative when it comes to MS products. But unfortunately WP7 does face quite an uphill battle now, and pronouncing it dead before it even ships doesn't help.

http://twitter.com/AaronCT123 @AaronCT123

The majority of the phone-buying population probably doesn't check to see what Gartner's saying. They just go "that's pretty." So… it's only affecting our ("our" being the kind of people who comment on sites like this) or techie people.

mark

Agreed. The issue is that what Gartner said has now been picked up on a half dozen media sites that some of those buyers do read. So it doesn't help.

Northerngeek

Why is he getting down-voted? Mark isn't stating anything irrational. Sure Gartner doesn't command a lot of attention with the public but it's possible that news-outlets and carriers may pay attention to this stuff. I agree with him, WP7 simply needs all the positive attention it can get right now (and hopefully after launch it'll be able to support itself).

http://twitter.com/MistaWet @MistaWet

Well, I guess it's time to fold up the tents and go home or maybe just run over and pick u an Android unit from somewhere.=/
n00b2000

I always get the distinct impression, when reading predictive statistics about the phone market, that somehow these analysts have forgotten that the market for smartphones is a long, long way from being saturated – I don't see why there isn't room for half a dozen different mobile operating systems, if not more. I also get the feeling that they put a bit too much stock in Symbian's staying power, even outside North America. It's really not a very good OS, and with cheap, low-end Android units hitting the market weekly, and modern OSs like WP7, iOS, WebOS, Bada and possibly MeeGo ready to scoop up growing midrange and high-end demand, a figure like 30% seems inflated. But hey, that's just me…
interframe

The job of an analyst is an easy one. If there aren't any facts, just say what you feel instead of relying on actual data.

http://www.martinschmidler.com martinschmidler

Then I feel sorry for those guys because of their feelings, which should prove false in no time. There's too much on the "plus" side for WP7 to fail.

Canuck

These analysts always need to say something that will get itself in the news…If they say that its going to ok…nothing surprising. Who is going to read that. It makes me laugh because MS have 5% of the phone market right now…I do believe.

Hey I wish someone would leak when Canada will be getting WP7.

mark

"Hey I wish someone would leak when Canada will be getting WP7."

Come up with some Whistler ski passes and you can probably get the team to launch in December

Canuck

I will get them Season passes if they launch sooner!!!

gullygod

Tell Gartner to go suck dem mumma, dagga dem fadda, and fcuk dem sister. Idiots! People actually listen to these a**holes.

Craig S

lol. Gaza mi seh

PaddyParker

The one thing Gartner fails to account is that Microsoft is sitting on a huge pile of cash and will without question use it to make sure one way or another that it dominates. E.g. MS could give Nokia a pile of cash to switch over to WP7 or RIM etc.

Didn't Gartner predict the iphone would be a failure?
Max

Analysts can only extrapolate with a straight line.
nuke1

Analysts cater towards the stock exchange…and this sort of bs doesn't help MS. The major players in the tecch world have impressive toadmaps, but MS is no exception. So Gartner, imo doesn't have a real standing. MS has some impressive IP and were the first to come up with something as innovative as Surface and Kinect.
http://twitter.com/WINPHONEJUNKIES @WINPHONEJUNKIES

It's really simple guys. If the phone is good as advertised it'll succeed. If the phone comes out of the gate with negative reviews it's DOA. This is on Microsoft to deliver a compelling alternative. I have a feeling they'll succeed. This is the most confident I've seen of Microsoft since they dropped Windows 7.

http://www.winphonejunkies.com
smith

I bet companies like Apple pay these idiots to be their whore and give these nonsense reports to media.

Really sad to see how cheap and idiot are these companies (people)…
GAM3R

Gartner will NOT fail at their prediction. Galen Gruman's articles about Windows Phone 7: Don't bother with this disaster? Customers are still hold them's predictable on their counts. look at http://msmobiles.com/ , Author Edward Jr's predicted about KIN which will fail from market. Now MSFT doomed KIN from Market. I believed Edward's predictable comments was successful. he is good at analyze market about MSFT KIN and WP7.