AdDuplex is running a year-long promotion for Windows Phone developers.
They are giving away 2 Windows Phones every month for developers who are publishing apps using their service and one high end phone for developers taking part in their monthly challenge.
This month’s monthly challenge, for a Nokia Lumia 1520, is simply for developers to tell them how AdDuplex helped promote their apps.
Read more about the contest at AdDuplex here.
According to AdDuplex data, Windows Phone 8 handsets are now 80% of the Windows Phone installed base, indicating both the growth of the Windows Phone installed base with new handsets, and presumably older Windows Phone 7 handsets being rapidly retired.
As a pointer to the first scenario, the Nokia Lumia 520 has also continued to grow as a proportion of all Windows Phones, with 1/3 of Windows Phones now being a Nokia Lumia 520, suggesting also significantly more than 10 million of these handsets have been sold.
The full AdDuplex report is now out, and in it AdDuplex does some speculation about the number of Windows Phones in current use.
They estimate around 12 million Windows Phone 7 handsets are still in use, decreasing at 2% every month.
At the same time they estimate around 38 million Windows Phone 8 handsets are in use, with this number still increasing. If 8 million handsets are sold in a quarter this number should increase by around 2.5 million per month.
This is a significant installed base, but unfortunately remains dwarfed by the other mobile ecosystems. In fact according estimates by Evercore group the iPhone hit 50 million in September 2010, 3 years and 3 months after its first release.
On the other hand by that measure Windows Phone is tracking the iPhone well, with the OS also hitting 50 million active users 3 years and 3 months after release, having been introduced in October/November 2010.
The iPhone hit 100 million active users only a year later, in September 2011. Do our readers think Windows Phone can emulate that feat? Let us know below.
In many ways it seems developing handsets is like making movies or TV shows – you create a wide range of products in the hope that one or two of them will be successful enough to sustain the company through the next cycle of doing the same.
While the Nokia Lumia 520 was the one Nokia smartphone to stick to the wall in 2013, that handset is now fading, and another Windows Phone has to take up the reins for the OS to grow.
From this month’s AdDuplex data is appears that handset is the Nokia Lumia 625. The Nokia Lumia 625 (which has a 4.7 inch WVGA screen and 5 megapixel camera) at 4.9% of all Windows Phones is currently the 6th most used Windows Phone, having grown 0.4% in the last month and climbing 2 spots, while the flagging Nokia Lumia 520 only gained 0.2% share. In UK the handset grew from 2.8% and 10th position 2 months ago to 6.4% and 4th position this month, while in France it is now second place with 9.5%. In Italy it is now 5%, double its share from a month ago, and in India it has 7.1%
That is not to say Nokia’s higher end handsets are doing completely terribly – AdDuplex notes that there appears to be more Nokia Lumia 1520′s than 525′s, a surprise finding for what was meant to be the 520 successor.
AdDuplex also has some insights into unreleased handsets,with the Nokia RM-997 appearing to be a low-end WVGA handset running WP8 for China.
More interesting is the Samsung SM-W750v, which is a 1080P handset with an amazing 4.3 inch screen. Unfortunately that handset is confined to Verizon’s network, which seems rather unfair considering the carrier is already getting the 5 inch 1080P Nokia Icon.
AdDuplex will publish their full report tomorrow.
As is usual before their full report, Alan Mendelevich from AdDuplex has posted some teaser stats from the report on twitter.
Most of the numbers do not come as any real surprise, such as the 12 most popular Windows Phones all being Nokia handsets, but one item was somewhat interesting.
According to AdDuplex’s advertising network 15% of Windows Phone 8 handsets are currently running GDR3, the latest update to Windows Phone 8.
The roll-out of the software started in the beginning of November 2013 with the HTC 8X, and has started in earnest with Nokia’s roll-out of the Lumia Black update in the second week of January.
Whether 15% is considered a large or a small number is up to the judgement of each reader, but I suspect a lot of the vocal complaining about wait times were prevented by Microsoft’s Developer Preview Program, which seems to me to be more than enough reason to keep that going into the future.
Are our readers inpatient for the update to hit their handsets? Let us know below.
AdDuplex, who has access to plenty of data from their app promotion network, and who publishes a monthly report, have looked at their numbers and found that it is likely that more Windows Phones were sold in Q4 than Q3 2013 after all, and that more than 10 million new Windows Phone handsets landed in consumer hands in the holiday season.
Their conclusion is based on that assumption that no significant number of Windows Phone 7 handsets were sold in 2013, and a number of other logical assumptions, but of course is not as solid as an actual announcement by Microsoft or Nokia.
Crucially it also suggests more Windows Phones were sold in Q2 than Q3, and that there were therefore a significant number of handsets in sales channel in Q3 already, waiting to be sold in Q4.
AdDuplex suggests there are now around 35 million Windows Phone 8 handsets in use, and about 45 million Windows Phones in total in active use.
AdDuplex’s data would be consistent with Kantar’s estimates, which has showed a more steady upward trajectory in Windows Phone sales. Hopefully some more clarification will be forthcoming eventually.
See the post at AdDuplex here.
AdDuplex has released their regular monthly report for December 2013, culled from data generated from more than 5000 applications which integrate their cross-promotion service.
The numbers confirm that it is basically only Nokia which is still selling Windows Phone 8 handsets, with the company now more than 92% of the Windows Phone 8 installed base.
They also show the continuing ascendancy of the Nokia Lumia 52x family, with the 520 and 521 together making up 34.1% of the Windows Phone installed base, and more than 43.5% of the Windows Phone 8 installed base.
In the latest AdDuplex teasers for the December report Alan Mendelevich revealed that the Nokia Lumia 52x family has continued its ascendency, with the Nokia Lumia 520 now more than 30% of the market worldwide, and the Nokia Lumia 520 overtaking the Nokia Lumia 920 as the second most used handset in the USA, giving the 521/520 family more than 30% of the US market also.
The popularity of the low-end handset has also lifted T-Mobile ahead of AT&T as the US carrier with the second most Windows Phones.
In other news Nokia’s high end handsets continue to struggle, with the Nokia Lumia 1520 at 16th and 1020 at 11th spot in the most used handsets and therefore less than 3% of the Windows Phone installed base and unlikely to chart.
Do our readers think Microsoft should embrace this trend or fight it by trying to release a very compelling high end Windows Phone? Let us know below.
The latest AdDuplex data for November is now available and surprisingly shows that Nokia’s greatest camera phone yet, the Nokia Lumia 1020, has not gained traction even amongst the Windows Phone community.
The handset has less than 2.9% of the Windows Phone market share, being pegged below the new Nokia Lumia 625, and is unfortunately another sign that the Windows Phone market is heavily weighed towards the low end.
Of course there could be other reasons for the device’s poor performance. I suspect top of the list is that the handset is a transitional device – it was released very close to the new generation of quadcore 1080P handsets, but still sported a dual-core 720P screen. As such the sophisticated buyer saw a major compromise – buy a great camera with old generation 2012 hardware, or wait for the next generation of Windows Phones in 2014 with better specs.
I suspect high end buyers are a lot more informed that Nokia and Microsoft expects, and will not be fobbed off with a poor compromise.
Do our readers agree? Let us know below.
In the early days of Nokia’s arrival on Windows Phone we heard many complaints when software was released exclusively for their handsets.
These days there is much less of an outcry, and according to AdDuplex data the reason is simple – at 90% nearly every Windows Phone in active use is a Nokia Lumia.
This is up from 89% last month, so not unsurprising. A year ago Nokia had 76% of the Windows Phone market, showing the company dominated the Windows Phone market nearly from the start, and has only been consolidating its position over the last few months.
Windows Phone 8 handsets are now 75% of the Windows Phone market, up from 70% last month, indicating that Windows Phone is still going through a growth burst at the moment, as the new WP8 segment rapidly grows vs the static and shrining WP7 segment.
Lastly AdDuplex reports the Nokia Lumia 1520 has started making an appearance on their charts, albeit in the 19th position, but funnily enough still ahead of the Huawei Ascend W2 and Samsung ATIV S Neo.
Given that Nokia’s handset division has been purchased by Microsoft, do our readers still see any point in keeping Windows phone a multi-vendor OS? Let us know below.
The Nokia Lumia 625 was designed for India, offering a large screened device with mid-range specs at an affordable price.
The handset hit the market in September there, and did not initially make an impression.
However one month later and the handset now has a solid 3.1% share of the Windows phone market in the region, according to AdDuplex’s data.
In fact the device seems to be selling better than the now venerable Nokia Lumia 520, which was only able to increase its share of the Windows Phone market by 0.6%, and has already overtaken all of the Nokia Lumia 920’s market share.
If this growth continues it is likely that it will soon become the 5th most popular Windows Phone in the region next month, and hopefully grow from there.
The most popular phone in the US at present
Alan Mendelevich from AdDuplex has teased some Windows Phone stats from their upcoming monthly report.
He revealed in September/October the Nokia Lumia 520 family has continued its massive growth, taking over from the Verizon Nokia Lumia 822 as the most popular Windows Phone 8 handset in USA.
There is now also a new Most Popular Windows Phone carrier in USA, likely AT&T, due to sales of new handsets like the Nokia Lumia 520, 925 and 1020.
Windows Phone 8 handsets are now 70% of the Windows Phone market, indicating that growth has remained steady but not spectacular in the last month.
Of interest to developers however is that the average number of users of an average Windows Phone app has doubled since last year, which should mean increased income for both for pay and ad-supported applications.
See the tweets after the break.
Some new data is out by AdDuplex, from their large mobile ad network. The data was gathered on September 20th, and reveals some worrying data points.
As has become the norm, the Nokia Lumia 520 has continued its ascent, now taking 31.6% of the Windows Phone 8 market.
The worrying data point however is that the Nokia Lumia 925, which has already been pretty widely released, is at present only 2.1% of the Windows Phone 8 market. The handset has been on the market since June, and did not even appear in August’s charts.