Normally Kantar numbers only gives us an idea of regional performance of Windows Phone, with the OS doing very well in some areas and rather poorly in others.
TechCrunch however managed to wheedle some global numbers from the company, at least on a company basis, and it assigns Nokia 4.3% worldwide market share.
September numbers would of course give us a better idea of the full Q3 quarter, but given that 7.4 million Windows Phone sales to end users in Q2 gave Windows Phone 3.3% global share, according to Gartner, if the market remains flat 4.3% should be around 9.5 million, and plus a few hundred thousand more by HTC, Huawei and Samsung should push Windows Phone over the 10 million mark.
The number would also be consistent with the 27% growth Windows Phone had from Q1 to Q2, suggesting it is about right.
Of course the numbers are likely to shift some more when September is included and June excluded, but I think the good news is that the momentum is still there globally, despite the tepid reception of Nokia’s higher end Windows Phones by the market.
See the regional numbers by manufacturer after the break.
The Nokia Lumia 520 has continued its low-end assault on the smartphone market, and has been so successful, it appears, that it has now overtaken all other Windows Phones in use, according to AdDuplex’s data, to be come the most popular handset.
In June the device had 8.4% of the market, while the Nokia Lumia 920 led with 12%. In May the NL 520 only held 4.4% share, and one can assume at least another 4% of the Windows Phone market has been ceded to the device.
The data is consistent with retail ‘checks’ by Canaccord Genuity who found Nokia Lumia 520 sales ‘solid’ while Nokia Lumia 920 sales were ‘tempered.
Microsoft once again insist they are they 3rd ecosystem with 6x faster growth, suggests Nokia will hit its 27% Q2 target
We posted earlier that Windows CMO/CFO Tami Reller revealed Windows Phone was growing 6x faster than the general market.
Now we have the video, during which Tami confirms that Windows Phone is certainly the 3rd ecosystem.
Last quarter the market grew 43% YoY, and Nokia predicted they would grow 27% in Q2 2013 sequentially, after shipping 5.6 million Lumias. The smartphone market is expected to have slowed down considerably in Q2 2013, but with 6 times bigger growth it still leaves plenty of space for Nokia and Windows Phone to grow more than 27%.
Could Q2 2013 be Windows Phone’s first 10 million quarter? Let us know below.
We have seen steady progress in Windows Phone market share, and corresponding increase in mind-share of handsets running the OS.
According to Google’s Trends website, which measures interest via volume of search queries, interest in Nokia’s Lumia range has never been higher, beating even the introduction of the Nokia Lumia 620, 720 and 920.
The peak is not due to any individual handset, but due to the combination of all, including for the Nokia Lumia 520, but it does show a snowball effect in action which should help the Nokia’s Lumia handset range into the future.
Thanks hja for the tip.
Comscore has released their monthly smartphone ownership numbers for the US market, and just like in March and April, in May 3% of US smartphone subscribers owned Windows Mobile or Windows Phone handsets.
The smartphone market has however continued to grow, adding 2.5 million users in the last month, and Windows Phone ownership itself grew by 75,000 or more users.
The news is not quite as good as for Blackberry, with ownership down 0.6% in the quarter, and down 0.3% from last month. At this rate it should be less than 6 months before there are more Windows Phone than Blackberry owners in the US.
The situation otherwise appears pretty static in the US, but it would be good to see the Comscore numbers start edging up in the near future, as it has done elsewhere in the world.
|Q1 2012||Q1 2013||Growth|
There must be a reason Apple’s share price has dipped below $400 these last few days, and it may be related to their sales actually dropping year on year in one of the richest markets in the world.
According to the IDC Apple’s shipments dropped from 7 million in Q1 2012 to only 6.3 million in Q1 2013. With no new iPhone in sight for Q2 or possibly Q3 the situation can only deteriorate further, unless Apple drastically cut their prices.
Windows Phone vendors like Nokia will be smiling however, as Q1 2013 saw more than 70% YoY growth to 1.9 million units This vastly exceeded the growth of the market itself, which was only 12% YoY.
Android remains king in Europe, with 21 million phones shipped and 35% YoY growth, but despite the discrepancy in numbers between Windows Phone and Android it is clear Windows Phone is the only OS which can challenge the behemoth growth-wise.
Interestingly the IDC’s numbers tally very well with Kantar’s end-user sales numbers, which showed Windows Phone had 6.5% of the market in Q1 2013 in the EU5 countries. Kantar also had iOS at 18% and Android at 68%, both again a pretty close match.
Given the economic crisis in Europe we expect iOS to drop further, and with the introduction of cheap Windows Phones like the 620 and 520, to see further Windows Phone growth, possibly topping the 10% mark for around 3 million Windows Phones sales in Europe in Q2 2013. We also expect Apple’s share price to drop even further…
See the full IDC press release after the break.
Digitimes reports that Chinese and Taiwanese OEMs have postponed plans to launch Windows Phones this year due to a combination of factors.
The main one is likely that Windows Phone is currently still a small segment of the market, while analysts have predicted the OS would reach 10% market share by this point already. It has been a much harder battle than predicted.
The second is Nokia’s dominance of the market, with the company taking in excess of 70% of new Windows Phone sales, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers.
Lastly they claim Microsoft has refused to lower license fees for Windows Phone, and has not budged on refusing to allow OEMs to customize and differentiate the OS, making it difficult for them to compete.
Digitimes notes since Microsoft offered WP8 in the fourth quarter of 2012, Nokia has so far launched six WP8 smartphone models, while Samsung Electronics, HTC and Huawei Device launched WP8 smartphones initially but then have not launched additional models.
All this is not to say Windows Phone’s share of the market is insignificant and not worth owning. With Windows Phone expected to reach close to 10 million shipments in Q2 2013 this would significantly exceed HTC’s shipments for example and match growing vendors like ZTE, Huawei and LG’s Q1 2013 results. These vendors however lack the ability to compete with Nokia, and Nokia’s single-minded commitment to Windows Phone has allowed it to grow its market share in parallel with iOS and Android, instead of competing directly in the fiercely contested Android market.
Do our readers think Nokia’s dominance of Windows Phone was inevitable and will continue, or should Microsoft be cultivating other OEMs also by lowering license fees and allowing them more freedom to differentiate, much like Nokia has already? Let us know below.
AdDuplex have released same data from their June 7th survey of their Windows Phone ad network.
Of note is that the growth in the Windows Phone market appears to be driven by Nokia’s new lower-end releases, with only the Nokia Lumia 520 and 720 growing their share (from 4.4 to 8.4% and from 1.7 to 3.7% respectively), while the other handsets, including the Nokia Lumia 920, appears to have peaked.
This underscores the Nokia’s need to continue pushing regular new releases to keep up the growth rate needed, and shows the importance of affordable handsets for the brand.
Due to Nokia’s strategy of regular new releases their share of the Windows Phone market has increased further, and has hit 83% overall and 84% for just Windows Phone 8 handsets.
The Nokia Lumia 520 has been rapidly ascending, and a teaser tweet by AdDuplex chief Alan Mendelevich suggests the handset is still going strong.
In last month’s stats (above) the device had a 4.4% share of the Windows Phone installed base, starting from nothing in April, suggesting to us at the time that the handset has sold around 1 million units.
Now according to Alan’s tweet the Nokia Lumia 520’s share has again nearly doubled, suggesting we are looking at around 8% of the installed base, and possibly another million in sales.
The numbers suggest there is a real thirst for cheap handsets from Nokia, and that accessing this segment of the market could result in a huge boost in Windows Phone market share.
AdDuplex said they will post their full stats later this week, which will contain such info as new unannounced handsets by Nokia, Huawei, HTC and Samsung, and that Windows Phone 8.1 Build 8.10.12106.0 is also out in the wild.
Here is an interesting titbit of information for our analyst-minded readers to mull over.
We do not have direct numbers from Verizon on how the Nokia Lumia 928 is doing there, but we do have some indirect evidence that it is doing reasonably well.
A recent tweet by Alan Mendelevich ?from AdDuplex suggests that Verizon has now in total sold more Windows Phone 8 devices than AT&T. In part this is likely due to the release of the Nokia Lumia 928 on the carrier.
Another proxy for sales however is the number of reviews left by buyers, and it is there where we can also do some interesting comparisons.
|Blackberry Z10||Nokia Lumia 928||Blackberry Q10|
|22 March 2013||Release date|
|16 May 2013||Release date|
|06 June 2013||Release date|
|09 June 2013||197||143||1|
It seems in 79 days on the market the Blackberry Z10 managed only 197 reviews, or about 2.5 per day.
The full Kantar WorldPanel results for April is now available, and it shows Windows Phone continuing to make progress in key EU markets like UK and Germany.
Dominic Sunnebo, global consumer insight director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, comments:
“Android and iOS continue to take the lion’s share of smartphone sales in Britain. However, Windows phones are becoming increasingly popular with consumers. Windows has grown its share by 4.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year and now holds an 8.4% share of the market.”
The increase in market share to an all time high of 8.4% is in the face of discounting by Apple of its older iPhone 4S and 4 models, with all three of its handsets remain in the six best-selling smartphone models in Britain. This should reassure readers that Windows Phone has what it takes to compete with the rumoured low-cost iPhone when it is released.
Windows Phone has once again also outsold Blackberry in UK, Blackberry’s strongest European market, with Blackberry only managing 5.6% market share, despite heavy marketing of the Blackberry Z10, which was released In February this year.
Although Android is still the number one OS in the US with 51.7% share, Apple is growing at a slightly faster rate and holds the number two spot with 41.4% share. In good news for Microsoft, Windows Phone continues to make solid progress with OS share hitting 5.6% and the Nokia 822 selling well on Verizon.
Overall in Europe Windows Phone now has 6.7% market share, up from 6.5% last month and 3.7% last year. Meanwhile iOS dropped from 19.4% to 18.4% last month, meaning Windows Phone is selling more than 1/3 of the volume of iOS, up from 1/5 last year. It is not inconceivable, if Apple fails to adequately address the low-cost market, that Windows Phone will have a larger market share than the iPhone by next year.
Dominic notes increasing European price consciousness has seen Sony and LG increasing their market share in countries like Spain and Italy, especially in the sub 150 Euro handset segment.
Windows Phone’s market share there should therefore be positively impacted by the release of the Nokia Lumia 520 in May.
See the full numbers after the break.
StatCounter: Windows Phone overtakes Blackberry in US web usage for the first time, growing strongly in UK
Its the first of the month again, when we take a look at the various stats agencies on the web.
For Windows Phone it is generally good news. There seems to be a recent acceleration in Windows Phone web usage and presumably adoption worldwide, likely driven by strong sales of the Nokia Lumia 520/521.
In US it seems Blackberry’s comeback has once again stalled, and for the first time ever Windows Phone has over taken Blackberry’s web usage on a weekly basis.
In an essay on the Verge forums RobbCab explains why Windows Phone is about to take off.
He notes that according to the “law of diffusion of innovation” consumers are divided into 5 different groups; the innovators, who bought Windows Phone in the early years, the early adopters, who have started sampling the OS now, and have taken its market share now rapidly up to 6.5% in the 5 biggest European markets and 5% in USA, and then the early majority, late majority and laggards.
Windows Phone has made significant progress climbing the ladder, and adoption should really sky rocket once Windows Phone grows above 15% market share, which Robb expects will happen by Q1 next year.
I suspect that is a bit too optimistic, but Robb notes that Microsoft is prepared to fund the project till it does reach that ignition point, a luxury a company like Blackberry and Firefox OS does not have.
He summarizes his theory as below:
- Nokia Lumia sales up 27% to 5.6 million in Q1 and projected to increase another 27% in Q2 to ~8 million. Nokia now has very solid offerings in both the premium and budget smartphone segments.
- High-end Windows Phones now on or coming to all major U.S. Carriers this summer
- Explosive growth on Verizon without a true flagship. Year on Year quarterly sales went from 0.2% of sales to 5.1% and they now have the Lumia 928.
- Windows Phones accounted for 6.5% of smartphone sales in the five biggest EU markets in Q1 (up from 4.1%). Only Windows Phone and Android sales grew Year on Year.
- The law of diffusion of innovation suggests once Windows Phone hits ~15% of quarterly sales and then 15% of total market penetration, it will gain mass acceptance.
Read Robb’s full and somewhat convincing assay at the Verge here.