Tag Archives: analysis

ABI Research awards Windows Phone 10.9 million Q4 2013 shipments, 4% market share

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While we have had varying reports for the total number of Windows Phone shipments in Q4 2013, ABI Research has been the closest to what our expectations for the quarter were.

They report 280 million handsets were shipped in the final quarter of 2013, with Windows Phone taking 10.9 million of the total number of shipments, up 104% from 5.3 million in Q4 2012, for a 4% market share.  They note Nokia accounted for 90% of Windows Phone shipments.

They also observed that while Android grew 51% YoY to 221.5 million units shipped, taking 77% market share, a large percentage of these handsets did not use Google’s services.

Most of the growth was coming from forked Android operating systems (137% year-on-year), mainly in China, India, and adjacent markets. Forked Android or AOSP accounted for 25% market share with 71 million unit shipments, as opposed to certified Android’s share of 52%, of a total of 77% market share. OHA Android only grew 29% YoY.

“The growth of AOSP is significant for Android’s owner Google, because AOSP does not offer Google’s services (due to their unavailability in China), impacting Google’s ability to monetize the Android ecosystem,” comments Nick Spencer, senior practice director, mobile devices.

Interestingly this presents an opportunity for Microsoft to offer their services on an equal footing with Google in those countries.

The iPhone grew from 15% in Q3 to 18% in Q4 2013 on the launch of the iPhone 5s, but was down year-on-year from 23% in Q4 2012 as emerging markets accounted for most of the growth.

“Apple continues to avoid a low cost smartphone product to target these markets, focusing instead on its traditional premium segment, where growth is harder to achieve due to fast approaching market saturation,” adds Spencer.

Windows Phone was once again the fastest growing mobile operating system, which bodes well for growth in 2014.

Read the full report at ABI Research here.

AdDuplex: Windows Phone installed base hits 50 million

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The full AdDuplex report is now out, and in it AdDuplex does some speculation about the number of Windows Phones in current use.

They estimate around 12 million Windows Phone 7 handsets are still in use, decreasing at 2% every month.

At the same time they estimate around 38 million Windows Phone 8 handsets are in use, with this number still increasing. If 8 million handsets are sold in a quarter this number should increase by around 2.5 million per month.

This is a significant installed base, but unfortunately remains dwarfed by the other mobile ecosystems.  In fact according estimates by Evercore group the iPhone hit 50 million in September 2010, 3 years and 3 months after its first release.

On the other hand by that measure Windows Phone is tracking the iPhone well, with the OS also hitting 50 million active users 3 years and 3 months after release, having been introduced in October/November 2010.

The iPhone hit 100 million active users only a year later, in September 2011.  Do our readers think Windows Phone can emulate that feat? Let us know below.

Via Winsupersite.

Editorial: So what went wrong?

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The recent news that Nokia missed analyst expectations of selling more than 10 million handsets in the holiday quarter has been somewhat of a disappointment, and I guess it is time for an autopsy.

The sales failed to meet the quarterly upward trajectory we have come to expect from Lumia sales over the last 6 quarters, and this is all the more galling due to Q4 2013 being the holiday season, when significantly more handsets are sold.

There is a number of reasons we can postulate why.

1) As Nokia themselves said, increased pressure at the low end from other OEMs like Sony, Motorola and Samsung.

2) An ageing low-end portfolio – The Nokia Lumia 525 was late and not significantly enough changed from the Nokia Lumia 520 to re-engage buyers looking for a new handset.

3) The lack of a mainstream high-end handset – I normally buy a new handset every year, but even I could not get myself to buy a 6 inch handset, no matter how good the specs.  The Nokia Lumia 1020 was also not enough of an upgrade to engage 920 owners.

There is also the possibility that Nokia was not making a huge effort to move handsets as before, since after selling off the handset business any further expense was just lost profit on the sale.

Additional, less well defined issues are the impact of the sale of Nokia’s handset business to Microsoft had on the market, an issue which may be compounded when Microsoft drops the Nokia brand. This uncertainty may have reduced the willingness of retailers to accept large amounts of Nokia inventory.

While some have complained of the lack of a major OS upgrade I think Windows Phone at present is functional enough for most buyers, but of course Microsoft could stimulate sales with a killer feature, much like Siri did on the iPhone, but unfortunately Microsoft has not shown any great facility in that field yet.

Our recommendation going forward would therefore be for a more significant cosmetic upgrade to Nokia’s lowest end handsets, to move 720P screens further down the market to handsets like the Nokia Lumia 630, to release a mainstream 5 inch handset like the Nokia Icon to the whole market, not just USA, and for Microsoft to license the Nokia name and work on that killer software feature (which will NOT be a notification centre or File Manager, or even voice assistant, which every Android handset has already).

What do our readers think is the biggest reason for Nokia’s stumble in Q4, and what does the company or Microsoft need to do to correct it? Let us know below.

Global Kantar numbers suggest around 10 million Q3 2013 Windows Phone sales

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Normally Kantar numbers only gives us an idea of regional performance of Windows Phone, with the OS doing very well in some areas and rather poorly in others.

TechCrunch however managed to wheedle some global numbers from the company, at least on a company basis, and it assigns Nokia 4.3% worldwide market share.

September numbers would of course give us a better idea of the full Q3 quarter, but given that 7.4 million Windows Phone sales to end users in Q2 gave Windows Phone 3.3% global share, according to Gartner,  if the market remains flat 4.3% should be around 9.5 million, and plus a few hundred thousand more by HTC, Huawei and Samsung should push Windows Phone over the 10 million mark.

The number would also be consistent with the 27% growth Windows Phone had from Q1 to Q2, suggesting it is about right.

Of course the numbers are likely to shift some more when September is included and June excluded, but I think the good news is that the momentum is still there globally, despite the tepid reception of Nokia’s higher end Windows Phones by the market.

See the regional numbers by manufacturer after the break.

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AdDuplex: Nokia Lumia 520 now the most popular Windows Phone

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The Nokia Lumia 520 has continued its low-end assault on the smartphone market, and has been so successful, it appears, that it has now overtaken all other Windows Phones in use, according to AdDuplex’s data, to be come the most popular handset.

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In June the device had 8.4% of the market, while the Nokia Lumia 920 led with 12%. In May the NL 520 only held 4.4% share, and one can assume at least another 4% of the Windows Phone market has been ceded to the device.

The data is consistent with retail ‘checks’ by Canaccord Genuity who found Nokia Lumia 520 sales ‘solid’ while Nokia Lumia 920 sales were ‘tempered.

They wrote:

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Microsoft once again insist they are they 3rd ecosystem with 6x faster growth, suggests Nokia will hit its 27% Q2 target

We posted earlier that Windows CMO/CFO Tami Reller revealed Windows Phone was growing 6x faster than the general market.

Now we have the video, during which Tami confirms that Windows Phone is certainly the 3rd ecosystem.

Last quarter the market grew 43% YoY, and Nokia predicted they would grow 27% in Q2 2013 sequentially, after shipping 5.6 million Lumias. The smartphone market is expected to have slowed down considerably in Q2 2013, but with 6 times bigger growth it still leaves plenty of space for Nokia and Windows Phone to grow more than 27%.

Could Q2 2013 be Windows Phone’s first 10 million quarter? Let us know below.

Nokia Lumia interest at an all-time high

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We have seen steady progress in Windows Phone market share, and corresponding increase in mind-share of handsets running the OS.

According to Google’s Trends website, which measures interest via volume of search queries, interest in Nokia’s Lumia range has never been higher, beating even the introduction of the Nokia Lumia 620, 720 and 920.

The peak is not due to any individual handset, but due to the combination of all, including for the Nokia Lumia 520, but it does show a snowball effect in action which should help the Nokia’s Lumia handset range into the future.

Thanks hja for the tip.

Comscore: Windows Phone holds steady at 3% share for 3rd month in a row, adds 75,000 US subscribers

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Comscore has released their monthly smartphone ownership numbers for the US market, and just like in March and April, in May 3% of US smartphone subscribers owned Windows Mobile or Windows Phone handsets.

The smartphone market has however continued to grow, adding 2.5 million users in the last month, and Windows Phone ownership itself grew by 75,000 or more users.

The news is not quite as good as for Blackberry, with ownership down 0.6% in the quarter, and down 0.3% from last month.  At this rate it should be less than 6 months before there are more Windows Phone than Blackberry owners in the US.

The situation otherwise appears pretty static in the US, but it would be good to see the Comscore numbers start edging up in the near future, as it has done elsewhere in the world.

Q1 2013 iPhone shipments declined 10% YoY in Europe as Windows Phone grows 73%


  Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Growth
Android 15.5 21 35%
iOS 7 6.3 -10%
WP 1.1 1.9 73%
Other 4.6 2.4 -48%
Total 28.2 31.6 12%

There must be a reason Apple’s share price has dipped below $400 these last few days, and it may be related to their sales actually dropping year on year in one of the richest markets in the world.

According to the IDC Apple’s shipments dropped from 7 million in Q1 2012 to only 6.3 million in Q1 2013.  With no new iPhone in sight for Q2 or possibly Q3 the situation can only deteriorate further, unless Apple drastically cut their prices.

Windows Phone vendors like Nokia will be smiling however, as Q1 2013 saw more than 70% YoY growth to 1.9 million units  This vastly exceeded the growth of the market itself, which was only 12% YoY.

Android remains king in Europe, with 21 million phones shipped and 35% YoY growth, but despite the discrepancy in numbers between Windows Phone and Android it is clear Windows Phone is the only OS which can challenge the behemoth growth-wise.

Interestingly the IDC’s numbers tally very well with Kantar’s end-user sales numbers, which showed Windows Phone had 6.5% of the market in Q1 2013 in the EU5 countries.  Kantar also had iOS at 18% and Android at 68%, both again a pretty close match.image

Given the economic crisis in Europe we expect iOS to drop further, and with the introduction of cheap Windows Phones like the 620 and 520, to see further Windows Phone growth, possibly topping the 10% mark for around 3 million Windows Phones sales in Europe in Q2 2013. We also expect Apple’s share price to drop even further…

See the full IDC press release after the break.

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Digitimes: Nokia and high license fees scaring of Chinese OEMs

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Digitimes reports that Chinese and Taiwanese OEMs have postponed plans to launch Windows Phones this year due to a combination of factors.

The main one is likely that Windows Phone is currently still a small segment of the market, while analysts have predicted the OS would reach 10% market share by this point already. It has been a much harder battle than predicted.

The second is Nokia’s dominance of the market, with the company taking in excess of 70% of new Windows Phone sales, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers.

Lastly they claim Microsoft has refused to lower license fees for Windows Phone, and has not budged on refusing to allow OEMs to customize and differentiate the OS, making it difficult for them to compete.

Digitimes notes since Microsoft offered WP8 in the fourth quarter of 2012, Nokia has so far launched six WP8 smartphone models, while Samsung Electronics, HTC and Huawei Device launched WP8 smartphones initially but then have not launched additional models.

All this is not to say Windows Phone’s share of the market is insignificant and not worth owning.  With Windows Phone expected to reach close to 10 million shipments in Q2 2013 this would significantly exceed HTC’s shipments for example and match growing vendors like ZTE, Huawei and LG’s Q1 2013 results.  These vendors however lack the ability to compete with Nokia, and Nokia’s single-minded commitment to Windows Phone has allowed it to grow its market share in parallel with iOS and Android, instead of competing directly in the fiercely contested Android market.

Do our readers think Nokia’s dominance of Windows Phone was inevitable and will continue, or should Microsoft be cultivating other OEMs also by lowering license fees and allowing them more freedom to differentiate, much like Nokia has already? Let us know below.

Nokia manufactures the top 8 Windows Phones by volume, and other AdDuplex June titbits

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AdDuplex have released same data from their June 7th survey of their Windows Phone ad network.

Of note is that the growth in the Windows Phone market appears to be driven by Nokia’s new lower-end releases, with only the Nokia Lumia 520 and 720 growing their share (from 4.4 to 8.4% and from 1.7 to 3.7% respectively), while the other handsets, including the Nokia Lumia 920, appears to have peaked.

This underscores the Nokia’s need to continue pushing regular new releases to keep up the growth rate needed, and shows the importance of affordable handsets for the brand.

Due to Nokia’s strategy of regular new releases their share of the Windows Phone market has increased further, and has hit 83% overall and 84% for just Windows Phone 8 handsets.

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Nokia Lumia 520 nearly doubles its WP share in one month, suggests millions being sold

The  Nokia Lumia 520 has been rapidly ascending, and a teaser tweet by AdDuplex chief Alan Mendelevich suggests the handset is still going strong.

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In last month’s stats (above) the device had a 4.4% share of the Windows Phone installed base, starting from nothing in April, suggesting to us at the time that the handset has sold around 1 million units.

Now according to Alan’s tweet the Nokia Lumia 520’s share has again nearly doubled, suggesting we are looking at around 8% of the installed base, and possibly another million in sales.

The numbers suggest there is a real thirst for cheap handsets from Nokia, and that accessing this segment of the market could result in a huge boost in Windows Phone market share.

AdDuplex said they will post their full stats later this week, which will contain such info as new unannounced handsets by Nokia, Huawei, HTC and Samsung, and that Windows Phone 8.1 Build 8.10.12106.0 is also out in the wild.

Via WPSF

Nokia Lumia 928 may be selling twice as fast as the Blackberry Z10 on Verizon

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Here is an interesting titbit of information for our analyst-minded readers to mull over.

We do not have direct numbers from Verizon on how the Nokia Lumia 928 is doing there, but we do have some indirect evidence that it is doing reasonably well.

A recent tweet by Alan Mendelevich ?from AdDuplex suggests that Verizon has now in total sold more Windows Phone 8 devices than AT&T.  In part this is likely due to the release of the Nokia Lumia 928 on the carrier.

Another proxy for sales however is the number of reviews left by buyers, and it is there where we can also do some interesting comparisons.


  Blackberry Z10 Nokia Lumia 928 Blackberry Q10
22 March 2013 Release date    
16 May 2013   Release date  
06 June 2013     Release date
09 June 2013 197 143 1

It seems in 79 days on the market the Blackberry Z10 managed only 197 reviews, or about 2.5 per day.

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