Tag Archives: analysts

Survey finds Windows Phone may overtake iPhone sales in 2014

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What type of operating system will your next mobile phone have?

Rewards company Jana Mobile, who concentrates on emerging markets, has posted the results from their survey of 1500 panellists in 9 countries on their intent to buy regarding their next smartphone.

They found in quite a few countries interest in Windows Phone exceeded that of the iPhone.  This was due to Nokia producing high quality low cost handsets less than $200, and Nokia’s strong brand in the emerging markets.

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What brand of mobile phone will you buy next?

The above table shows the strength of the Nokia brand in many emerging markets, with the company often 1st or 2nd on the list of buyer preference.

They also found the Windows brand itself was a reason buyers wanted to buy a Windows Phone, with some users saying:

  • “I want to use Windows on my next phone. I love to use Windows phones” (34, male, India)
  • “It will outperform my previous mobile operating system” (34, male, Indonesia)
  • “It is a smart operating system and is convenient for surfing the web” (25, male, Vietnam)
  • “Conversant with windows and can sync with my PC” (45, male, Kenya)
  • “I enjoy having Windows functions” (18, male, Nigeria)
  • “I like the Windows brand” (24, male, Brazil)
  • “It connects well with my PC” (22, male, Mexico)
  • “Because Windows is a good operating system. It is easy to create emails and access the Internet more like a laptop does” (23, male, South Africa)

In their survey 74% of respondents said they plan to spend less than $200 on their next phone, putting handsets like the iPhone completely out of the picture.

Jana notes multiple low cost OEMs like Huawei, Micromax, and others are coming on board, which should help support the expansion of Windows Phone.

They conclude:

With multiple handsets priced below $200, and a swell of popularity in emerging markets, 2014 could be the year that Windows phone establishes itself as the second most popular smartphone OS worldwide.

Do our readers think Windows Phone will explode in 2014, or has it already peaked in Q3 2013? Let us know below.

Via BGR

Strategy Analytics awards Windows Phone its first 10 million + quarter, calls it “the world’s fastest growing major smartphone platform”

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We have been waiting rather long for it, and now Strategy Analytics has been the first major market research company to suggest more than 10 million Windows Phones have been shipped in one quarter.

Windows Phone outgrew the market, which only increased 45% and doubled its market share to 4.1%.

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Windows Phone hit 4% market share in Q3 says ABI Research

imageABI Research reports that nearly 10 million Windows Phones were shipped in Q3 2013, with 165% Year on Year growth. Nokia accounted for 95% of Windows Phone market share.

“The race for the third ecosystem is clearly favoring Windows Phone with 4% market share, over BlackBerry’s 1.5%, but there remains little opportunity for new market entrants to make a significant impact on Android’s dominance,” comments senior analyst, Michael Morgan.

Android took 80.6% share of shipments, with Samsung taking 35% by itself, while iOS remained flat at 14% share.

Apple predicts it will ship 53 million iPhones in Q4, but senior practice director, Nick Spencer notes: “Even with a record Q4 for the iPhone, Apple is only expected to achieve 18.7% market share which is down from the 22.6% Apple achieved in Q4 2012, due to Android’s growing dominance and the importance of emerging markets.”

ABI Research estimates 438 million handsets and 244 million smartphones were shipped during the 3rd quarter of 2013.

Analytics company predict Windows Phone users will hit close to 70 million this year

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Analytics company GlobalWebIndex, who gathers data from an international panel drawn from survey companies such as YouGov, Lightspeed Research and GMI, has reported on the results of their Q3 survey.

They predict Android will hit 708 million users this year, followed by the iPhone at 233 million and the iPad at 165.72 million users.

Of interest to our readers however is that Windows Phone users are estimated to rocket to 68.26 million users this year, passing Blackberry, who will drop to 62.56 million users. This would make Windows Phone users around 10% of Android users and 30% of iPhone users, and a far from insignificant number.

They also found Windows 7 will still have an estimated 734.12 million users this year, while Windows 8 users will reach 168.11 million. Meanwhile, there will be an estimated 47.78 million Apple Mac users this year, the research firm said, a number one would note significantly smaller than the small Windows Phone user base.

I cant personally vouch for these numbers, which seem on the high side, but there is no doubt that the absolute number of Windows phone users are growing well, and to the degree that it is becoming a market which developers ignore at their peril.

See a more detailed breakdown of the numbers after the break.

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Windows Phone outsold the iPhone in China in August says analyst

We can count (briefly) China as one of the list of countries where Windows Phone has been outselling the iPhone, if we believe analyst Counterpoint Research, who released some figures regarding what is likely the biggest smartphone market in the world.

According to the company 30 million smartphones were sold in August alone there, mostly low-end Android devices which took 96% of the market.

While Samsung was the biggest seller, it only managed 15% of the market, due to strong competition from local companies like Lenovo, Huawei, Coolpad, Xiaomi, and ZTE.

The other 4% was shared by Apple and Windows Phone, with Nokia surpassing Apple and iOS due to the very successful Nokia Lumia 520. The release of the new iPhone 5s and 5c range is however likely to reverse this (hopefully temporarily).

The premium smartphone market has been shrinking in China, with operators moving subsidies to low-end and mid-range devices, with the real volume growth in the sub-$200 category.  91% of handsets sold are now smartphones, showing that the replacement of the feature phone market is nearly complete.

Nokia has previously said China is their biggest market for Lumia handsets. Hopefully their new range of Windows Phones to be announced later this month will continue to find favour in the region, and make iOS’s resurgence shot-lived.

Via Telecompaper

Microsoft needs to go on the PR offensive as Gartner recommends business switch from Blackberry within 6 months

keep-calm-and-switch-to-windows-phoneBlackberry’s implosion has been become pretty public recently, but for many businesses the company is still synonymous with getting work done on the move.

Analyst firm Gartner is now recommending those businesses, who still use tens of millions of Blackberries, should make plans to move off that platform post-haste.

"Gartner recommends that our [BlackBerry enterprise] clients take no more than six months to consider and implement alternatives to BlackBerry," said Gartner analyst Bill Menezes in an email interview with Conputerworld. "We’re emphasizing that all clients should immediately ensure they have backup mobile data management plans and are at least testing alternative devices to BlackBerry."

Gartner recommends:

  • Move off BlackBerry devices completely
  • Place BlackBerry on a "contain" status where users are told that BlackBerry will be discontinued except when approved by management, possibly leaving a "controlled” community of BlackBerry devices.
  • Upgrade a limited set of users, such as executives who want a BlackBerry physical keyboard or users in high security jobs, to BB 10 devices, while supporting other platforms such as Android or iOS,  but Gartner also suggest enterprises should not activate BES 10 for management of Android and Apple devices until there is more clarity on BlackBerry’s future.

The full Gartner report will soon be delivered to their clients, but what has been made public so far does not seem to include a recommendation to go Windows Phone, despite the back office of these companies likely running on Microsoft infrastructure.

It seems, given the opportunity, and especially with Microsoft’s impending ownership of Nokia’s mobile division, now would be a good time to hit the enterprise market hard with marketing suggesting a smooth transition from Blackberry to Windows Phone, which has a cost advantage over iOS and a security advantage over Android, is a very good idea.

Do our readers agree? Let us know below.

Analyst: Nokia considered a much better brand purchase than Motorola

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Brand specialist Kontera says Microsoft has purchased a big boost in global brand awareness when it purchased Nokia, and managed a much better deal than Google’s 2011 purchase of Motorola for $12.5 billion.

Kontera cross correlates content that consumers view online, analysing roughly 2 billion content items daily, says Ammiel Kamon, Kontera’s executive vice president of marketing and activation products.

He found consumers engaged a lot more with Nokia than Motorola.

"In a nutshell, Nokia is a significantly stronger global brand. It has tremendous recognition value, and that brand strength is a spark that can translate into sales and market share, given strong products and distribution channels."

"Having control of the physical device and a direct connection to the consumer can not be underestimated," he says. "Ownership of the device is key to creating a superb consumer experience and it is also key to control of the distribution channels."

He notes that the level of engagement was "a key marketing predictor within the set of brands of which products consumers are most inclined to consider and ultimately buy,"

"Consumers’ awareness and consideration for Microsoft’s smartphone offerings are much lower than Apple and Google, so this is a game changer for their go to market strategy," Kamon opines. "It will be very interesting to see how the Google-Samsung relationship fares in the next 12 to 18 months."

Of course what Kamon does not appear to know is that Microsoft intends to drop the Nokia brand from their Lumia range, which given his analysis appears to be ill advised.

Via USAToday.com

“Nokia 1020 is a top 3 selling smartphone at AT&T,” says Canaccord Genuity

Nokia Lumia 1020 DeveloperIn an article by the Financial Post analyst company Canaccord Genuity revealed that their August retail checks found Windows Phone was doing relatively well.

They found gradually improving Windows Phone 8 smartphone sales due to strong sales of the Lumia 520 and other mid-low-tier Lumia smartphones.

Surprisingly however the rather expensive and niche Nokia Lumia 1020 was also doing well.

“We believe Microsoft has recently worked more in concert with Nokia to drive sales, as evidenced by Microsoft’s advertising campaign highlighting the Lumia smartphones and features, and the Nokia 1020 is a top 3 selling smartphone at AT&T,” Canaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley said.

He said:

Our surveys indicated positive sales rep reviews and decent sales for the Lumia 1020 at AT&T. Further, our surveys indicated positive reviews though modest sales for the entry- level Lumia 521 and high-tier Lumia 925 at T-Mobile. However, our global surveys indicate gradually improving Windows Phone 8 smartphone sales due to strong sales of the Lumia 520 and other mid/low-tier Lumia smartphones. In fact, our surveys indicated solid Lumia 520 sales not only in emerging markets such as Russia and key APAC region countries but also in developed markets such as the UK and the US. We believe the growing Lumia sales, especially in the harder-to-track mid/low-tier smartphone segments, are leading to gradual WP8 smartphone share gains.

Canaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley told clients that the timing makes sense for Microsoft to purchase Nokia’s devices and services business in order to fund stronger long-term growth trends.

Are our readers surprised the Nokia Lumia 1020 made it to AT&T’s August top 3? Let us know below.

Nokia says it will return handset business to profit as soon as possible, but this may be a mistake

imageNokia has had its credit rating downgraded once again, this time by Moody’s, to B1, four levels below "investment grade" and well into “junk” territory.

This follows a similar rating by Standard and Poor a month earlier.

Moody’s rating is based on concerns for Nokia’s cash flow.

"We have downgraded Nokia’s CFR [corporate family rating] mainly because we believe that the company continues to face challenges returning to sustainable profitability in its core smartphone and mobile phone operations, and because we believe that it is unlikely to reach break-even on a cash flow basis before well into 2014, at the earliest," said Roberto Pozzi, Moody’s vice president and lead analyst on Nokia.

"Nokia is currently experiencing strong double digit volume growth rates – it shipped 13.5 million smart devices in the first half of 2013 – but from a very low base and therefore it has yet to see a sustainable ramp that could allow it to achieve break-even. In the second quarter of 2013, the smartphone business was still losing €14 for every €100 of sales," they noted.

"The negative outlook on Nokia’s B1 reflects Moody’s view that it may take longer than 18-24 months for the company to return to sustainable profitability and cash flow generation.

"The outlook on all ratings is negative," concluded Moody’s.

Nokia responded to the the downgrade by insisting they still had plenty of cash and unused credit facilities, and that their smartphone business was growing well.

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‘Store Checks’ find Nokia Lumia 1020 off to a slow start

imageSomewhat predictably, analysts are reporting that the $299 Nokia Lumia 1020 is not setting sales charts alight in the US.

Analyst R. W. Baird’s William Power made checks on Friday launch day and also on Saturday and reports few stores were sold out.

He writes:

Last week, we visited and contacted AT&T stores to gauge early sales of the Nokia Lumia 1020. Reps we spoke with were nearly unanimously positive about the device’s hardware, especially with the performance of the 41-megapixel camera. In contrast, those same reps were quick to point out that early sales were modest at best. When asked what was limiting consumer adoption of the 1020, reps commonly cited the $300 price target and consumer concern with switching over to a new OS as the biggest hurdles. We only found a handful of stores that sold out of the device on launch day, and in several cases, we were the first people to ask specifically about the 1020.

He noted while the checks were “Obviously an early read,” nevertheless, to him it “still feels like an uphill battle for Nokia and Windows.”

While we do not know how reliable Power’s store checks are, the results are quite predictable for a niche product like the Nokia Lumia 1020, but we cant help feeling a $199 introductory price point would have generated much greater excitement and sales, merely due to the much increased perceived value for money.

Do our readers agree? Let us know below.

Via Barrons.com

Goldman Sachs expects Compal to do well on strength of Nokia, other growth

The optimism in the air around Nokia’s Lumia growth is also affecting the prospects of their suppliers.

Goldman Sachs have announced that they expect Compal to do very well in the second half of 2013 due to bigger orders from Nokia, Sony Corp. and Lenovo.

"We believe such strong revenue expansion may bring substantial operating leverage and may surprise the market on the upside, after the possible net losses in the first half of 2013 due to lack of scale," said Robert Yen, a Taipei-based analyst at Goldman Sachs.

The company is also likely to pick up more contract manufacturing orders from Nokia after tapping into Nokia’s Windows Phone 8  product portfolio, he said.

They expect Compal’s H2 revenue to near treble their H1 revenue, such that Compal Communications’ second-half revenue will account for 74 percent of its full-year revenues.

Goldman Sachs kept its "buy" rating on the stock and set a target price of NT$57 (US.$1.9).

Nokia grew Lumia sales 27% between Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, and has said they expect even stronger growth between Q1 and Q2 2013.  Given, with only 2 weeks left in Q2 2013,  and that the company has not yet warned that this forward-looking statement is incorrect, we can assume Nokia managed to hit their shipment targets,  and that more than 7 million Lumias were sold in Q2, with further growth expected over the course of the year.

via Taiwannews.com.tw

Canalys predicts Windows Phone and iPhone to be neck and neck in 2017

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Analyst companies are pretty far from prescient, and their predictions more accurately reflect their sentiment regarding an OS now rather than what will actually happen.

If that is the case Canalys must be having some pretty good feelings about Windows Phone, as it is the only OS in their latest report they expect to grow market share over the next 4 years, primarily taking share from Apple and “other”.

According to the analyst company, worldwide 1.5 billion smart phones will ship in 2017, to account for 73% of all mobile phone shipments. In North America and Western Europe, virtually all phones shipped will be smart phones. Even in Greater China, smart phones will represent 95% of all mobile phone shipments in 2017.   

‘The price of smart phones has fallen dramatically over the last few years and this has helped increase penetration,’ said Chris Jones, Canalys Principal Analyst. ‘But, so far, the problem with low-cost smart phones has been that the user experience has been compromised to hit lower price points. This is why Nokia has been so successful with its Asha portfolio. These handsets have been purpose-built and provide a great “pseudo-smart phone” experience. But the situation will change over the next few years. As component prices continue to fall, vendors will be able to deliver great experiences on smart phones at low price points, which means that in many markets, feature phones will become extinct.’

They expect growth in the smart phone market will continue to be driven by Android and by 2017 more than 1 billion android phones will ship, giving the platform a 67.1% market share. Over the same period, it is forecast that Apple’s shipments will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than the total smart phone market and hence its market share will fall from 19.5% in 2012 to 14.1% in 2017.

‘Apple’s growth will be curtailed by the fact that momentum in the smart phone market is coming from the low end, and Apple is absent from this segment,’ said Jessica Kwee, Canalys Analyst. ‘Android’s continued dominance is due to the scalability of the platform.’

In contrast to Apple, Microsoft’s market share is forecast to grow from 2.4% to 12.7% over the same period.

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Analysts happy with the Nokia Lumia 925

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With Nokia’s share price on a roller coaster ride, and dropping on the same day as the announcement of the Nokia Lumia 925, it would be interesting to hear if the analysts felt Nokia has done enough with the device to keep sales and revenue up.

It seems they were largely satisfied. IDC research director John Delaney was impressed with the imaging capability of the slim handset.

“These are impressive phones that compare strongly with other devices in their class. Strikingly, ads for the devices explicitly put them toe-to-toe with Apple’s iPhone and Samsung’s Galaxy S on low-light image capture. Nokia has been reluctant in the past to mention competitors, let alone to criticise them. But having developed an extremely strong imaging proposition comprising both hardware and software, if Nokia is going to start a battle then it has probably made the smartest choice of battleground available.

Besides differentiating in the camera space, he thought Nokia explicitly taking charge of updates for their handsets would also set it apart from other Windows Phone OEMs.

“From now on, the Nokia-exclusive elements of the Lumia software will be released regularly in alpahabetically-named packages. The first of these, Amber, ships with the 925. This could prove to be an important source of differentiation in the future, if HTC continues to expand its range of Windows 8 devices and if other OEMs commit substantially to Windows 8. The updates should be well received by customers if each new release brings such clear new benefits as the ones in the Amber release.

“However, Nokia must be careful about communicating its story around software releases, especially to the developer community. The releases are about new functionality, not developer APIs – but it wouldn’t take much to raise suspicions about fragmentation of the platform.”

uSwitch.com telecoms expert Ernest Doku said the Lumia 925 is the smartphone that Nokia fans have been waiting for as it addresses the criticisms made towards the Lumia 920.

“This is the one that true Nokia fans have been waiting for. Addressing all of the critical concerns levelled at the Lumia 920, the 925 is lighter, smarter and made of sterner stuff, thanks to its aluminum frame. The marriage of technical expertise in mobile imaging with a gorgeous piece of hardware shows that the Finnish manufacturer still has fire in its belly.

However, Doku warned that Nokia must broaden services like HERE Maps and Mix Radio to give consumers reasons to switch platforms.

“However, the battle is no longer in just having the flashiest phone. The megapixel wars are over, and consumers are looking for apps and software that make life easier. Windows Phone is slowly gaining traction – largely via the Lumia range and positive word of mouth – but is still a small fraction of the smartphone market.

“Nokia would genuinely benefit from also broadening its unique services – the likes of Here Maps and Mix Radio – to give those on the fence a real reason to switch.”

Via MobileNews