The full Canalys report is now available, and it confirms the recent report by Counterpoint Research that Nokia is now the 4th largest smartphone OEM in USA, with Research Director Nicole Peng, saying:
‘Samsung was the leading vendor across all regions except North America, where Apple held the top spot. These two vendors account for almost 70% of the market there. LG held onto third place in North America, while Nokia has moved from eighth to fourth place after making gains from its competitors with its new flagship products, the Lumia 1020 and 925.’
The research company also had high hopes for Nokia’s new flagship handsets.
‘The 6″-plus segment will be boosted next quarter by Nokia’s arrival, but this market won’t develop quickly unless Samsung invests marketing dollars to push its Galaxy Mega range,’ said Jingwen Wang, Research Analyst.
They explained the appeal of large screened smartphones in Asia Pacific by noting that low PC and home broadband penetration, a high level of mobile network use, and low Wi-Fi network penetration in these countries limit the presence and functionality of Wi-Fi tablets. At the same time, many consumers in these countries are price-sensitive, so domestic vendors have been successful with affordable large-screen smart phones – a phenomenon that is less visible in other regions.
After Greater China, the second largest region was Europe, the Middle East and Africa, where 56 million units shipped, representing year-on-year growth of 22%. Here, Samsung leads with nearly a 50% share, while Apple follows far behind with 13%. Sony, Nokia and LG retained their positions.
Apple trails in Latin America, where it has only a 5% share and is in seventh place. Here, LG, with 10%, falls far behind Samsung; TCL-Alcatel makes an appearance in third place, followed by Nokia and Huawei.
Worldwide, though, Canalys expects smart phones with screens between 4.1″ and 5″ will be most popular with consumers in 2014 as they offer the best balance between portability and legibility.
Read the full report here.
Canalys has now also weighed in with their Q3 2013 numbers, and it confirms, like others, that Windows Phone growing well.
According to Canalys iOS and Android market share remained static, but Windows Phone grew 185% to take 4% market share, selling 9.2 million handsets.
Canalys also revealed than Windows Phone was the second biggest mobile OS in 19 countries, including Finland, with a 39 percent share, Vietnam (16 percent), Italy (15 percent), Thailand (11 percent), Turkey (11 percent), and Russia (8 percent).
“Nokia’s new Lumia handsets will help shore up this position in the holiday quarter, but Microsoft and Nokia must ensure that momentum is kept up well into the New Year as the acquisition goes through to completion,” Canalys Analyst Jessica Kwee said in a statement.
Going along with Nokia’s trend for larger-screened devices, Canalys also confirmed that 22% of smartphones now had screens bigger than 5 inches, though only 3% had screens bigger than 6 inches.
More than 250 million smartphones were shipped in Q3, with Greater China (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan) accounting for nearly 100 million units for 64% growth and 39% of the market.
Latin America had the second highest growth rate, at 59 percent, though it is the smallest region, with 19 million units shipped.
Analyst companies are pretty far from prescient, and their predictions more accurately reflect their sentiment regarding an OS now rather than what will actually happen.
If that is the case Canalys must be having some pretty good feelings about Windows Phone, as it is the only OS in their latest report they expect to grow market share over the next 4 years, primarily taking share from Apple and “other”.
According to the analyst company, worldwide 1.5 billion smart phones will ship in 2017, to account for 73% of all mobile phone shipments. In North America and Western Europe, virtually all phones shipped will be smart phones. Even in Greater China, smart phones will represent 95% of all mobile phone shipments in 2017.
‘The price of smart phones has fallen dramatically over the last few years and this has helped increase penetration,’ said Chris Jones, Canalys Principal Analyst. ‘But, so far, the problem with low-cost smart phones has been that the user experience has been compromised to hit lower price points. This is why Nokia has been so successful with its Asha portfolio. These handsets have been purpose-built and provide a great “pseudo-smart phone” experience. But the situation will change over the next few years. As component prices continue to fall, vendors will be able to deliver great experiences on smart phones at low price points, which means that in many markets, feature phones will become extinct.’
They expect growth in the smart phone market will continue to be driven by Android and by 2017 more than 1 billion android phones will ship, giving the platform a 67.1% market share. Over the same period, it is forecast that Apple’s shipments will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than the total smart phone market and hence its market share will fall from 19.5% in 2012 to 14.1% in 2017.
‘Apple’s growth will be curtailed by the fact that momentum in the smart phone market is coming from the low end, and Apple is absent from this segment,’ said Jessica Kwee, Canalys Analyst. ‘Android’s continued dominance is due to the scalability of the platform.’
In contrast to Apple, Microsoft’s market share is forecast to grow from 2.4% to 12.7% over the same period.
Canalys has struck the warning bells again, noting that Android only has 32 of the top 50 free iOS applications and only 29 of the top 50 paid.
The majority of the missing apps were games, thought notable missing apps included Vine and Twitter Music.
The implications for the mobile OS, which only had 75% market share in Q1 2013 is of course dire.
“The results show that Google still has some work to do itself to ensure that top iOS titles are making it into the Google Play store,” says Tim Shepherd, Canalys senior analyst, of the new findings.
Last week Canalys had a similar warning about Windows Phone, noting the Windows Phone store only contained 16 of the top 50 free Apple App Store applications, and 14 of the top 50 paid, with the same Tim Shepherd saying ‘The availability of key apps is a factor in motivating consumers’ initial mobile device purchasing decisions, and it will only become more so. But moreover, it is a major factor in determining ongoing consumer satisfaction.’
The fact of course is that the success of Android proves that Apps are not all that important – even thought I don’t have an app for my bank, I can still somehow manage the same as I have for the past decade, and Android users are managing perfectly fine without Vine, and the OS grew just as well for the years than Instagram was not available on their platform. Lets not forget that the iPhone launched without the ability to install any 3rd party apps at all.
While I wish Windows Phone had more apps, the fact is that apps follow a successful platform, not the other way around, which is why the Android app store is rapidly becoming larger than the iOS app store. Microsoft need to continue concentrating on growing Windows Phone, and the app issue will solve itself.
Canalys estimates that in Q4 2012 Windows Phone managed to double shipments to 5.1 million units, up from 2.5 million units in Q4 2011.Â This took Windows Phoneâ€™s market share from 1.6%Â then to 2.4% last quarter, a small but significant increase.
While this is well below our expectations, it still leaves Windows Phone as the fastest growing operating system last quarter, with 104% growth, vs 83% for Android, 29% for iOS and â€“42% for Blackberry.
Canalys Market Research firm today published its final Q2 2012 country-level shipment estimates. China saw phenomenal growth of 199% year-on-year and 32% over the previous quarter capturing 27% of the total smartphones shipped worldwide. Samsung led the OEM stats for the most shipments of smartphones followed by Apple and Nokia.
In platform based numbers, Windows Phone saw a 277.3% growth YoY. 5.1 million Windows Phones shipped in Q2 2012 comapred to 1.3 million in Q2 2011. From the numbers we can easily derive that Nokia Lumia accounts for almost 80% of the Windows Phone shipments last quarter. I hope Windows Phone 8 launch will further push device sales further from Q4.
Thanks to Arun for the heads up.
Canalys have some numbers for the US market which shows half a million Windows Phones were shipped in Q4 2011 into the US market. This represents 1.6% of the market.Â It is not clear of Canalys defined Windows Phone strictly as Windows Phone 7, or included Windows Mobile also.
For the full year they claim 2.2 million Windows Phones were shipped , suggesting shipments actually slowed down at the end of the year.
This, as with other recent analyst numbers, indicate Microsoft is still to implement a strategy that will work in competing against iPhone and Android.
Thanks Arun for the tip.
Canalys says close to 10 million Windows Phones shipped in total, Nokia grabbed 50% of Q4 2011 Windows Phone shipments
Canalys have released their 2011 and Q4 2011 estimates, and have for the first time placed a solid number on Nokiaâ€™s Windows Phone 7 shipments.
They note 2.5 million Windows Phones were shipped in Q4 2011, with 1.2 million of those being by Nokia, giving it 48% of the market, remarkably close to the 45% we estimated from other data.
They also demolish the notion that Nokia shipped more Meego powered Nokia N9â€™s than Lumia handsets, saying only 0.6 million of those handsets were shipped then, close to the 0.5 million estimated by AllaboutSymbian.com.
Canalys says about Nokia:
â€œIts first Windows Phone products, the Lumia 800 and 710, along with the recently announced Lumia 900 through AT&T in the US, have improved the outlook for Nokia,â€ said Canalys Senior Analyst, Tim Shepherd. â€œThey are well-designed, competitive devices that demonstrate innovation is still alive within Nokia. But the battle is not over and it has huge challenges ahead. Nokia must continue to build out its Lumia portfolio with devices tailored to address all price points and all the markets in which it aims to compete. It must hasten its transition from Symbian to Windows Phone around the world and, with Microsoft, promote and generate excitement for the platform and new products. And it must succeed in attracting more developers to build high quality, locally relevant apps.â€
In total Canalys estimates 6.8 million Windows Phones were shipped in 2011, a pretty low number. With 2.85 million handsets shipped at launch in Q4 2010, that bring a total of around 9.65 million handsets shipped so far.
In total Windows Phone holds 1.6% of the market.Â This should increase in 2012 as Nokia increases its roll-out and Windows Phone itself rolls out to more countries such as China in the middle to later part of the year.
Read the full report at Canalys here.
Thanks Arun for the tip.
Canalys has released their quarterly estimates for smartphones shipments, and confirmed the deceleration we had predicted in May from from Facebook data.
According to Canalys only 1.5 million Windows Phone handsets were shipped in Q2 2011. Gartner had earlier said only 1.6 million Windows Phone 7 handsets were sold in Q1 2011.
Microsoft is also eager to see Nokiaâ€™s first Windows Phone products, along with those from its other OEM partners, ship with its Mango update. â€˜A fresh crop of products is certainly needed,â€™ said Jones. Fewer than 1.5 million Microsoft-based smart phones shipped during the quarter, equating to a mere 1% share of the global market, down 52% against shipments a year ago.
The company did not differentiate between Windows Mobile and Windows Phone 7 handsets.
We estimate, with 829,000 Facebook users for the WP7 app, and if our earlier multiple holds true, that there are about 5 million Windows Phone 7 handsets in the wild.
We do agree with Canalys that, with many Windows Phone 7 handset designs nearly a year old what the ecosystem really needs to boost its sales is the release of a few new handsets.
Read the full report here.
Canalys has a performed a survey of 3000 mobile phone users in France, Germany and UK and found 54% of users wanted their next phone to have touch screens. However most users who actually had touch screens were disappointed with the experience, with 53% saying they would move away from these type of devices.
The exception were however HTC smartphones, who with Apple had much higher acceptance rate. With the vast majority of HTCâ€™s handsets still running Windows Mobile this is a major endorsement of the user experience on HTCâ€™s handsets running the OS.
Also interesting is that 16% of users preferring stylus based devices, compared to 38% who wanted finger-centric ones. This indicates that the stylus-contingent is far from small or insignificant. These users were also pretty resistant to moving to finger-orientated devices (something we have seen in our own comment section). Interestingly enough however it was again HTC and Samsung users who were most prepared to move from stylus to finger, likely because their Windows Mobile devices allowed both methods of operation.
Read more about this interesting study at Canalys here.
We have seen the Canalys numbers of Q3 2008, and while the bad news for Windows Mobile is that it has been pushed to 4th position, the good news is that robust growth continues, despite extensive media coverage if its demise.
However when compared to Q2 2008 numbers (from Gartner, but they are generally in agreement) another interesting picture emerges. While many of the trends remain intact (e.g. Symbian’s loss of market share and flat shipment growth in a booming market) some things on reflection are very different. Between Q2 and Q3 2008 sequentially it appears that RIM is actually growing at a slower pace than the market (8.2% vs 23.7%) and has consequently lost market share (17.4 to 15.2%). On the other hand Windows Mobile actually grew a stunning 40.1% between Q2 and Q3 2008 and increased its marketshare by 1.6% (vs RIM’s 2.2% drop).
Of course some would suggest that RIM’s poor performance was due to issues getting the Blackberry Bold released, and that the Blackberry Storm will fix this. It is however of note that the delayed shipments of Windows Mobile devices which led to missing the much touted 20 million goal received scant sympathy earlier this year, and that RIM’s problems are RIM’s own concern.
Regarding Apple’s numbers, not much can be said except that they launched into a depleted channel (of their own design), hence their low Q2 numbers and high Q3 numbers, and therefore amazing growth, but if certain analysts are correct their Q4 numbers wont be half as rosy.
Canalys has published their latest Q3 2008 smartphone numbers, and despite wide-spread proclamations that Windows Mobile is not just dying but dead already, it was in fact Symbian which not only saw a 21.5% drop in marketshare, but also a 12.4% drop in actual shipments, as Japanese Symbian OEM’s move to other platforms and even Nokia struggle to get into the touch screen phone market.
Windows Mobile on the other hand defied the critics by posting a 42.9% YoY growth in sales, and even gained marketshare, clearly stealing sales from Symbian , who was the only contender in the market that actually lost sales.
Windows Mobile sales rocketed by 1.6 million extra devices YoYÂ on the strength of compelling devices from HTC and Samsung in particular, according to Canalys.
Of course it would be foolish not to mention the strong sales of the iPhone 3G, which now takes second place only second to Symbian. It is however of note than of the 6.9 million devices shipped, it has been suggested than 2 million devices may still be sitting on shelves, the result of major channel stuffing by Apple, and that Q4 2008 may look very different, with Apple shipping up to 40% less devices.