Tag Archives: gartner

Gartner: Windows Phone grew 123% YoY in Q3, is “the real winner of this quarter”

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After IDC’s numbers from earlier this week, the next most respected market analysts is Gartner, and they have now released their own view of the 3rd quarter of 2013.

Of note is that while IDC talks in shipments, Gartner claims to count sales to end users, and by their calculations 8.9 million people have purchased a new Windows Phone in Q3 2013.

That accounts for 3.6% of the market, up from 2.3%, for a 123% Year on Year growth.

Anshul Gupta, principal research analyst at Gartner notes:

“…the winner of this quarter is Microsoft which grew 123 percent. Microsoft announced the intent to acquire Nokia’s devices and services business, which we believe will unify effort and help drive appeal of Windows ecosystem.”

In contrast Apple’s market share was down more than 2 points to 12.1%, and Gupta writes:

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Microsoft needs to go on the PR offensive as Gartner recommends business switch from Blackberry within 6 months

keep-calm-and-switch-to-windows-phoneBlackberry’s implosion has been become pretty public recently, but for many businesses the company is still synonymous with getting work done on the move.

Analyst firm Gartner is now recommending those businesses, who still use tens of millions of Blackberries, should make plans to move off that platform post-haste.

"Gartner recommends that our [BlackBerry enterprise] clients take no more than six months to consider and implement alternatives to BlackBerry," said Gartner analyst Bill Menezes in an email interview with Conputerworld. "We’re emphasizing that all clients should immediately ensure they have backup mobile data management plans and are at least testing alternative devices to BlackBerry."

Gartner recommends:

  • Move off BlackBerry devices completely
  • Place BlackBerry on a "contain" status where users are told that BlackBerry will be discontinued except when approved by management, possibly leaving a "controlled” community of BlackBerry devices.
  • Upgrade a limited set of users, such as executives who want a BlackBerry physical keyboard or users in high security jobs, to BB 10 devices, while supporting other platforms such as Android or iOS,  but Gartner also suggest enterprises should not activate BES 10 for management of Android and Apple devices until there is more clarity on BlackBerry’s future.

The full Gartner report will soon be delivered to their clients, but what has been made public so far does not seem to include a recommendation to go Windows Phone, despite the back office of these companies likely running on Microsoft infrastructure.

It seems, given the opportunity, and especially with Microsoft’s impending ownership of Nokia’s mobile division, now would be a good time to hit the enterprise market hard with marketing suggesting a smooth transition from Blackberry to Windows Phone, which has a cost advantage over iOS and a security advantage over Android, is a very good idea.

Do our readers agree? Let us know below.

Gartner estimates Windows Phone had 2.9% market share in Q1 2013, 120% YoY growth

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System in 1Q13 (Thousands of Units)

Operating System

1Q13

Units

1Q13 Market Share (%)

1Q12

Units

1Q12 Market Share (%)

Growth
(YoY)

Android

156,186.0

74.4

83,684.4

56.9

87%

iOS

38,331.8

18.2

33,120.5

22.5

16%

Research In Motion

6,218.6

3.0

9,939.3

6.8

-37%

Microsoft

5,989.2

2.9

2,722.5

1.9

120%

Bada

1,370.8

0.7

3,843.7

2.6

-64%

Symbian

1,349.4

0.6

12,466.9

8.5

-89%

Others

600.3

0.3

1,242.9

0.8

-52%

Total

210,046.1

100.0

147,020.2

100.0

43%

Source: Gartner (May 2013)

Gartner has released their estimates of worldwide smartphone sales in Q1 2013, and of interest to our readers is the performance of Windows phone in the period.

According to Gartner’s estimates 5.989 million Windows Phones were sold to end users in the quarter, up from 2.722 million a year ago, giving Windows Phone a 2.9% market share, up 1% from last year.

The number nearly matches sales in the holiday quarter of 6.1855 million, which is unusual for a consumer product in the post holiday season.

This number should edge up in Q2 2013, with the launch of both high end devices like the Nokia Lumia 928 and 925 and a range of cheaper devices such as the Nokia Lumia 520 and 720 all contributing.

Windows Phone on track for a 7 million + sales in Q4 2012

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(Gartner quarterly WP sales vs Quarterly MAU of the built-in Facebook app added, Q4 2012 sales predicted)

It seems Windows Phones have continued to fly of the shelves, and in Nokia’s case as fast as they can make them.

Our proxy numbers, monthly active Facebook users, have continued to soar in the month of December, adding half a million MAU in December and more than 1 million in Q4 2012. This compares to 100,000 added in December last year and 250,000 for the whole Q4 2012. It seems sales have held true to Microsoft’s earlier estimate of being 4 times as fast as last year.

Translating that into actual devices sold, that would correlate to around 7.4 million handsets sold this quarter. up from 4.05 million sold in Q3 2012, which is a rather healthy boost.   On the other hand in that quarter only 550 thousand MAU of the built-in Facebook function was added, vs more than a million in this quarter, indicating that there are definitely more new phones in more hands.

Now we have seen some who doubt the correlation between added Facebook users and Quarterly sales according to Gartner (who claims to measure handsets sold to consumers rather than shipped devices), so we went to the trouble of working out the R-value of our data from Q2 2011 to Q3 2012, and the result is 0.92, which is pretty close to a straight 1:1 correlation.

We chose to use numbers from Q2 2011, as that was, according to Gartner, from then no significant numbers of Windows Mobile handsets were sold, which would of course have messed up the correlation.

See the data below:

Quarterly Added MAU FB WP Gartner Quarterly WP sales Ratio
Q2-2011 209855 1723800 8.2
Q3-2011 189778 1707900 9.0
Q4-2011 248607 2759000 11.1
Q1 2012 457143 2712500 5.9
Q2 2012 571429 4087000 7.2
Q3 2012 549206 4058200 7.4
Q4 2012 1022222  7432300 (Predicted) 7.3

Note this does not necessarily mean Nokia will boast large sales on the 24th of January.  We know from other sources that some of the best selling handsets were Nokia Lumia 800 phones which Nokia must have shipped 3 quarters ago and Nokia Lumia 610s which shipped in Q3. However developers do not care about shipments but phones in the hands of potential customers, and from the data available it seems that market just grew by close to 30% this quarter.

Thanks Arun for the tip.

Gartner still has confidence in Windows Phone

imageGartner has long been predicting Windows Phone success, and the last quarter’s hiccup in sales, with Nokia only shipping 3.7 million Lumias, has not caused them to waver much in their support.

FIercemobile reports that Gartner still predicts that Windows Phone should  take the number three position in the smartphone market, surpassing Research in Motion’s  BlackBerry by 2013 or 2014, and matching Apple’s iPhone market share by 2015.

David Cearley, vice president and fellow at Gartner, however still predicted Google’s Android to be in the lead, and also expected Windows 8 tablets to be behind Android and iOS in 2015.

By 2015, media tablet shipments will reach around 50 percent of laptop shipments and Windows 8 will likely be in third place behind Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS operating systems, Cearley said.

"We expect Windows 8 will remain relatively niche and more attractive to organizations than individual consumers. Developers of corporate applications should consider Windows tablet as a target device in 2013," he said.

Microsoft is of course working hard to prove Cearley right on phones and wrong on tablets, with  the result in many ways intertwined. If Windows 8 does well Windows Phone 8 may also benefit from the free advertising which comes from the familiar interface. If it does poorly it would be a clear rejection by consumers of the stark Metro interface.

We will likely know the trajectory of both projects in less than 6 months.

Latest Gartner numbers for Q1 2012 reveals few surprises


 

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System in 1Q12 (Thousands of Units)


Operating System

1Q12

Units

1Q12 Market Share (%)

1Q11

Units

1Q11 Market Share (%)

Android

81,067.4

56.1

36,350.1

36.4

iOS

33,120.5

22.9

16,883.2

16.9

Symbian

12,466.9

8.6

27,598.5

27.7

Research In Motion

9,939.3

6.9

13,004.0

13.0

Bada

3,842.2

2.7

1,862.2

1.9

Microsoft

2,712.5

1.9

2,582.1

2.6

Others

1,242.9

0.9

1,495.0

1.5

Total

144,391.7

100.0

99,775.0

100.0


Source: Gartner (May 2012)


imageGartner has released their smartphone market share estimates for Q1 2012, and now, 5 months into the new year, they do not reveal much new.

Total Windows Phone and smartphone sales have remained flat from Q4 2011 to Q1 2012, with 2.7590 million handsets sold in the holiday season, and 2.7125 million handsets sold in Q1 2012. Market share numbers remained static at 1.9%.

Of particular interest is that Nokia shipped around 2 million Windows Phones in Q1 2012, and with only 2.7 million Windows Phones sold that quarter, it suggests Nokia now holds around 66% share of the Windows Phone OEM market.

The numbers also show that Android has now become the operating system to beat, which is rather good news for Windows Phone, given that the quality of the Android ecosystem is rather poor to start with, making it not too difficult to create a compelling alternative.

Of note to regular readers is that Gartner’s numbers agree pretty well with our own projections based on Facebook Monthly Active Users, which at present predicts that sales will remain rather flat into Q2 also, but also that with around 12 million handsets in circulation Windows Phone is building a a sustainable market which should help reward developers who support it, and set a reasonable foundation for  Windows Phone 8 in the near future.

Source: Gartner numbers via Telecomlead.com

Gartner: Windows Phone sales increased 450% YoY, 62% between Q3 and Q4 2011

garnetq42012

Gartner have released their quarterly numbers for Q4 2011, and it shows encouraging news for Windows Phone 7.

According to Gartner 2.759 million Windows Phones were sold in Q4 2011, taking us one percenters nearly to the 2% market share mark.

While this would appear to be a decline from Q4 2011, we know from research released earlier that Gartner does not believe any more Windows Mobile handsets are being sold, making that pure Windows Phone sales.

An estimated 500,000 Windows Phones were sold in Q4 2010, making that an estimated 450% YoY growth.

Sales are also up Quarter on Quarter, with 1.7 million WP7 handsets sold in Q3 2011, meaning sales increased 62% QoQ.

Full year 2011 Windows Phone sales would come to 7.88 million and sales to the end of Q4 2011 around 8.4 million.

The numbers also indicate that Nokia did in fact grow the market, rather than just steal market share from other Windows Phone 7 OEMs. Of course the question remains whether HTC, LG and Samsung can maintain their Windows Phone momentum as compared to Nokia or will leave the field to them alone.

Gartner’s Cozza told the Economic Times she expects Windows Phone to reach an 8.6% share of smartphones by the end of the year.

See Gartner’s report here.

According to Gartner, no Windows Mobile phones were sold in Q2 and Q3 2011, 5.5 million Windows Phones till Q3 2011

gartner

In an article where the writer basically argues developers should abandon Windows Phone and develop for Android, the Guardian did however reveal a bit of very interesting data.

According the the graph released by Gartner, Windows Mobile shipments stopped in Q1 2011, meaning all the numbers released since Q2 2011 have been pure Windows Phone 7 numbers.  This information is important, in that Gartner has up to now insisted that the number is a combination of Windows Mobile and Windows Phone 7, which would obviously have reduced the very important number of Windows Phone 7 handsets sold.

Based on this data then, we can seen in Q3 2011  1.7 million band in Q2 2011 1.73 million Windows Phone 7 handsets were sold.

Looking very closely at the graph one can also discern the Q1 2011 share of Windows Mobile and Windows Phone. Counting pixels, one can see 2 million Windows Mobile handsets were sold and 1.7 million Windows Phone 7 handsets were sold.

Using the same method we can see about 0.55 million Windows Phone 7 handset were sold in Q4 2010, and a suspicious 1.7 million Windows Mobile handsets.

That would makes sales basically completely flat for the whole year, and suspiciously constant.  It does make one almost question Gartner’s methodology.

It also gives us a total for Windows Phone 7 sales for the 12 months since launch, ending in Q3 2011, of about 5.5 million, according to Gartner at least.

Of course all of these numbers are now somewhat irrelevant (hopefully) with the arrival of Nokia on the scene, but it does make it easier to interpret future releases by the company.

Gartner claims massive Windows Phone sales collapse in Q2, seems wrong

image

Garnet have released their quarterly smartphone sales numbers, which they claim are sales to end users.

We do not normally have a bone to pick with their numbers, but their latest numbers seem to me to be somewhat out of kilter with reality, and if true would mean a massive collapse in Windows Phone 7 sales worldwide.

According to Gartner only 1.723 million phones running Windows Mobile + Windows Phone 7 were sold to end users in the second quarter of 2011, down fro 3.658 million in Q1 2011.

This would represent a more than 50% drop in combined sales over the last 3 months, a number which seems somewhat unlikely.  Last quarter they also released specific Windows Phone 7 numbers, pegging this at 1.6 million, a number which is nearly as big as the total number for Q2 2011, suggesting Windows Mobile sales have been nearly wiped out.

While Windows Mobile sales may have dropped, and Windows Phone 7 handsets now outsell Windows Mobile, in most areas the numbers are still close to 50:50, as can be seen in this Kantar data.

Moreover, looking at WP7 Facebook usage numbers it seems new WP7 devices were being activated at an extremely steady rate between Q1 and Q2 2011.

image

In fact 206,213 users were added in Q1 and 196,014 users in Q2, a slight drop, but nowhere close to 50%.

So while it is certainly possible 1.7 million Windows Phone 7 handsets were sold in Q2 2011, I suspect as a combined WM and WP7 number (which was confirmed to me by Gartner) the estimate appears pretty wrong.

See the full Gartner report here.

Windows Mobile sales surprisingly flat in Q1 2010

Gartner Smartphone Sales Q1 2010

Gartner have released their Q1 2010 figures for smartphone sales, and unsurprisingly Windows Mobile has continued to lose market share. What is surprising is how well the numbers have held up, with sales between Q1 2009 and Q1 2010 being virtually the same, despite the OS basically being end of life’d at Mobile World Congress  in February this year.

Of course the smartphone market did grow nearly 50% YoY, which may account for some of those Windows Mobile sales, and of course excellent flagship devices such as the HTC HD2 would have helped.

Windows Mobile market share now stands at 6.8%, well below Android, and there is a strong sense of the OS being phased out, despite Microsoft’s stated intent to keep it hanging around as an enterprise operating system. Windows Phone 7 is still around 3-6 months away, which means its pretty likely sales numbers will continue to tank.

Readers will therefore forgive us if we keep our eyes focussed on Windows Phone 7 and its fortunes, because it’s likely by Q1 2011 Windows Mobile sales will be measured in thousands rather than millions.

A little titbit of note is that Gartner claims HTC sales of 2.6 million, while Windows Mobile sales are 3.7 million.  I guess HTC does not sell 80% of Windows Mobile handsets after all…

Via Engadget.com

Windows Mobile eating into RIM marketshare

We have seen the Canalys numbers of Q3 2008, and while the bad news for Windows Mobile is that it has been pushed to 4th position, the good news is that robust growth continues, despite extensive media coverage if its demise.

However when compared to Q2 2008 numbers (from Gartner, but they are generally in agreement) another interesting picture emerges. While many of the trends remain intact (e.g. Symbian’s loss of market share and flat shipment growth in a booming market) some things on reflection are very different. Between Q2 and Q3 2008 sequentially it appears that RIM is actually growing at a slower pace than the market (8.2% vs 23.7%) and has consequently lost market share (17.4 to 15.2%). On the other hand Windows Mobile actually grew a stunning 40.1% between Q2 and Q3 2008 and increased its marketshare by 1.6% (vs RIM’s 2.2% drop).

Of course some would suggest that RIM’s poor performance was due to issues getting the Blackberry Bold released, and that the Blackberry Storm will fix this. It is however of note that the delayed shipments of Windows Mobile devices which led to missing the much touted 20 million goal received scant sympathy earlier this year, and that RIM’s problems are RIM’s own concern.

Regarding Apple’s numbers, not much can be said except that they launched into a depleted channel (of their own design), hence their low Q2 numbers and high Q3 numbers, and therefore amazing growth, but if certain analysts are correct their Q4 numbers wont be half as rosy.

Royal Mail orders 25,000 Windows Mobile phones

Royal Mail has ordered 25,000 CN3 Windows Mobile Smartphones as part of its investment in new technology and will start supplying the devices to postmen and women this summer.

Royal Mail delivers 80 million items a day to 28 million addresses across the UK. The Intermec CN3 mobile computer will enable Royal Mail to improve on its current paper-based system for collecting signatures for the majority of its tracked products, including Special Delivery and Recorded Signed For services. The information will then be sent back via GPRS wireless technology to the sending customers, who will confirm the delivery, and view the signature. The company says this can be done within 15 minutes.

Robin Dargue, chief information officer of Royal Mail Group, said: “We embarked on a series of trials across the UK late last year to test the suitability, compatibility and benefits of a postal digital assistant for both our customers and our staff. The feedback from both groups was extremely positive especially when it came to ease of use of the CN3.”

The CN3 includes four integrated radios including GPS. It also runs Windows Mobile, which supports direct push wireless email.

While Windows Mobile has found a ready home in business and industrial settings which require a robust expandable OS, it is unfortunate that massive deployments such as these often do not get counted by consumer-focussed analysts like Gartner and the IDC.

Source:Intermec press release

Gartner claims RIM overtakes WM, but excludes many WM devices

Gartner has released their Q1 2008 Smartphone numbers, and as usual it makes for interesting reading.

Total smartphone sales were 32.2 million, accounting for 11% of total mobile phone sales. Nokia sales were up 25% at 14.5 million, with a market share at 45%, but Symbian marketshare was down 6% from 63.5% to 57.1% YoY.

RIM achieved spectacular growth, going from 8.3% to 13.4% YoY, growing sales by 2.3 million.  This gives RIM, according to Gartner, the second place in the Smartphone market, passing Windows Mobile.

According to Gartner, Windows Mobile shipments grew 0.92 million, and only 0.2% YoY, to 3.86 million, for a market share of 11.8%, placing it in 3rd place. These numbers however conflict with numbers released by Microsoft itself, who claimed to have shipped 4.3 million smartphone licenses and having shipped 1.9 million more. 

This discrepancy can be explained by Gartner’s definition of a Smartphone as “A large-screen, voice-centric handheld device designed to offer complete phone functions while simultaneously functioning as a personal digital assistant (PDA).”  In contrast it has another category, called Wireless Handhelds which they define as wireless PDAs, mainly used for data apps and typically are operated with two hands. This would exclude many popular devices such as the AT&T Tilt, T-Mobile Wing and Sprint Mongul.

Palm shipments were up 0.1% from 464 thousand to 657 thousand for a 2% market share.

Linux shipments strikingly declined from 3.38 million to 2.9 million, and market share declined from 13.6 to 9.1%

Apple iPhone shipments, at 1.7 million, constituted 5.3% worldwide smartphone marketshare, or  0.6% of the global mobile phone market. Apple has previously said they were aiming for a 1% share of the world market for all mobile phones.

Read more here.