The latest Kantar results for the 3 months ending July 2014 are out now, and the numbers show some signs of a European recovery, likely led by the Nokia Lumia 630 and to a lesser extent the 930.
At 9.9% market share Windows Phone numbers are once again up in UK, while Windows Phone sales has once again overtaken iOS in Italy at 13% of the market. The OS also continues to keep big year on year increases in Spain, though at 4.8% it is down on last months 7.5% numbers.
Sales are however down in France and Germany, I think reflecting lack of traction of the Nokia Lumia 930, particularly in Germany, which always had a preponderance of high end Windows Phones.
In USA market share is marginally up at 3.9%, and in Australia there are also month on month improvements.
Overall in EU market share is up year on year at 8.5%, while iOS on the other hand is down to 1.6% Year on Year.
We should see the full impact of new handset releases over the next 2 months, but it appears that Windows Phone is finally starting to turn the corner after a very fallow spring.
See the full numbers after the break.
Q2 2014 was a difficult quarter for Windows Phone, with few product launches of note and a difficult transition from Nokia to Microsoft Mobile.
The results can be seen in the table above, with Windows Phone shipments as estimated by IDC dropping from 8.2 million in Q2 2013 to 7.4 million in Q2 2014, and Windows Phone dropping its market share from 3.4% to 2.5%.
The loss in market share was however even worse for iOS and Blackberry, with iOS losing 1.3% share and Blackberry 2.3%, in the face of intense competition by Android, who’s market share increased to 84.7%.
While some publications are still (strangely) talking about a duopoly, it seems pretty clear Android is heading to a monopoly, with even Apple seemingly unable or unwilling to do anything about it.
The good news however is that Windows Phone has gathered a bevy of new OEMs, and expect quite a number of product launches in Q3 2014, so while things are looking down, it may very well be the dark before the dawn.
While Q2 2014 was not quite as disastrous as we were briefly led to believe it was certainly not a great quarter for Windows Phone.
Analyst company Strategy Analytics have posted their estimate for smartphone sales by OS in Q2 2014, and have awarded 8 million shipments to Windows Phone, down from 8.9 million in Q2 2013.
This drop in sales has dropped Windows Phone from an already marginal 3.8% market share to only 2.7%.
South African carrier Vodacom has published their regular smartphone ownership stats for their network, and it reads as good news for Windows Phone.
The OS is making steady progress there, increasing by 35,000 users in the last 3 months, and 140,000 over the last 9 months.
While we have been pretty concerned that Q2 2014 sales were “disastrous” Microsoft revealed in their earnings call that things are not quite as bleak as they appear.
While Microsoft only sold 5.8 million handsets in the 65 days left in Q2 since the merger became official on the 25th April, Satya Nadella confirmed overall that sales were better in Q2 2014 than Q2 2013, saying:
But that said, we are even year-over-year basis seen increased volume for Lumia, it’s coming at the low end in the entry smartphone market and we are pleased with it. It’s come in many markets we now have over 10% that’s the first market I would sort of say that we need to track country-by-country.
That translates into at least 6.9 million shipments (Q2 2013’s volume) and if one merely extrapolate the numbers possibly as much as 8 million.
Satya also confirmed that the new range of Windows Phone 8.1 handsets are doing well, saying:
On phones, we saw a good early start to Lumia 630 and 635 as well as Lumia 930 especially in Europe
As to the future of Windows, he said
…the key places where we are going to differentiate is looking at productivity scenarios or the digital work and life scenario that we can light up on our phone in unique ways.
In the year ahead, we are investing in ways that will ensure our device OS and first party hardware aligned to our core.
With the new enterprise focus of Microsoft I suspect in the near term we will see more business-related features coming to Windows Phone, and of course in the medium term Windows and Windows Phone will merge next year.
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AdDuplex has attempted to get an accurate view of the distribution of Windows Phone users worldwide, using a few apps which are distributed equally globally, and by eliminated apps which were strong only regionally and would therefore skew the results.
Above is their current best attempt, though they said they would continue to work to refine the data.
The numbers show USA is still the strongest Windows Phone market, followed by India and Brazil, and surprisingly Russia before Italy.
The percentages allow us to attempt to calculate the size of the Windows Phone market. According to Comscore there are about 5.75 million Windows Phone users in USA, which is 11% of AdDuplex’s numbers, allowing us to calculate that there are around 52 million Windows Phone users.
Kantar has posted their latest market share numbers for the 3 months ending May 2014.
The numbers are a mixed bag, but shows an overall decline likely related to the absence of any significant launches in the first half of 2014. In the EU5 countries Windows Phone has dropped to 8.1% of the market, from highs of over 10% earlier in the year. In US Windows Phone currently only holds 3.8% market share.
On the positive side however Windows Phone the OS still holds year on year gains in most markets except China and US, and we hope the new launches in June/July will help turn the numbers around.
See the full table after the break, and last month’s numbers here.
The IDC reports that Q1 2014 was a quiet period in Australia, with a general reduction in the sales of all mobile phones, including a 20% drop in smartphone sales from the holiday quarter.
"The smartphone market in Q1 was subdued when the initial hype over Apple’s new iPhone 5s and 5c tapered off from last quarter. Consumers were also holding off their purchases in anticipation for the next wave of Galaxy S smartphones from Samsung, then rumoured to be in Q2," says IDC’s Senior Market Analyst, Amy Cheah.
Windows Phone itself was of course also between product waves, with no major new smartphones announced in Q1 (or frankly Q2) 2014 either.
The OS still managed to score 4.6% of the Australian smartphone market however, or 4% of the market including the ever shrinking feature phone market, which is now only 12% of the handset market there.
|2014 Q1 Smartphone Operating System Share Australia
Only a total of 1.8 million smartphones were sold in Australia in Q1 2014, with Windows Phone making up 82,000 units of this small market.
While an increase from 3% to 4.6% is a bigger than 50% growth in market share, we hope an invasion of new, cheaper handsets in Q3 2014 will result in more significant growth.
See the IDC’s report here.
eMarketer reports that Windows Phone is the fastest growing operating system in UK, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 42%, and that 3 million UK residents will own Windows Phones by 2015.
The installed base of Windows Phones have always been a closely guarded secret by Microsoft.
After Apple announced 80 million Mac computers in use multiple Microsoft-friendly journalists, such as Ed Bott above, however noted this is the same installed base as Windows Phones.
The number seems a bit high however, and I would place it closer to 50-60 million, based on the last two years of sales of Windows Phones sales according to the IDC, but maybe Ed is quoting a statement made by Microsoft at some point.
Apple also announced more than 500 million iPhones sold, but of course not all of those iPhone 3GS are still in use. With the Windows Phone installed base close to 20% of the iPhone base, should our platform be getting more attention?
Carrier Vodacom in South Africa is unusual in regularly releasing statistics regarding market share of smartphones on their network.
In today’s release they revealed that they have 377,000 Windows Phones on their network, making up 6% of the 6.4 million smartphones on the carrier.
South Africa is still unusual in being dominated by Blackberry, but this is rapidly changing as sales drop and the number of devices in circulation decrease.
We have seen some wildly divergent numbers for Windows Phone sales in Q1 2014, including ABI Research, which estimated more than 13 million handsets.
UK market research company Canalys have now weighed in with their Q1 numbers, and for Windows Phone they are not half as rosy.
The company estimates 279.4 million smart phones were shipped in Q1 2014, representing growth of 29% on Q1 2013, but a decline of 5% on the seasonally strong Q4 2013.
81% (226.3 million) were Android devices, with iOS and Windows Phone accounting for 16% (44.7 million) and 3% (8.4 million) respectively.
China, the world’s largest smart phone market, accounted for 35% of shipments, substantially ahead of the US, which managed just 12%.